277
FXUS61 KCLE 161730
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1230 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND DEAMPLIFY
AS IT DOES. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA BY BEING DOMINATE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH SOME AREAS IN NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA STAYING IN THE UPPER 20S. ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THERE WILL BE A VORT
MAX THAT WILL REACH DOWN SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE ENERGY WILL STAY TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL THAT WILL CONFINED TO
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LOW CHANCE PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY MORNING MAINLY BEFORE
12Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WITHIN THAT AREA THAT THE PRECIPITATION
COULD FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS IS A
FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING SINCE ONLY A COUPLE OF
MODELS, MAINLY THE NAM WHICH DOES TEND TO OVERFORECAST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. BUT REGARDLESS, IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION, ROADS AND
WALKWAYS COULD BECOME SLICK IF UNTREATED WITH THE GROUND
TEMPERATURES STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING DUE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
OUT QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ON THURSDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING IMPACTS TO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AND INCREASING SURFACE LEVEL
WINDS/GUSTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. MODELS WILL DEPICT
LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 925MB AT 45-55 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, THOUGH WITH IT BEING WAA IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
GET ALL OF THOSE WINDS TO TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
CURRENTLY, GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30-35 MPH WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, THE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO DECREASE
OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY WIND GUSTS THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY MORNING AND PEAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ALLOWING FOR QPF TOTALS TO BE AROUND 0.50" WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
SEEING TOTALS NEAR AN INCH. CURRENTLY FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN FOR
THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LOWER QPF AND THAT THE REGION IS STILL
RECOVERING FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM THE PAST FEW MONTHS. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE STRONG CAA AND ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING
OUT WEST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO THE EAST. WITH THE STRONG CAA,
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET FROM THE 8C THEY WERE DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY TO AROUND -12C BY FRIDAY WHICH HAS TRENDED WARMER OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AT ANY RATE, THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOW BELT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THESE SHOWERS WILL LAST INTO
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND END ONCE THE INCOMING RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS AND LIMITING MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST THEY HAVE BEEN IN A FEW
WEEKS DUE TO THE STRONG WAA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLE HITTING THE 50S. THOUGH,
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND BE DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES WON'T RECOVER MUCH AS WE'LL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE HIGH 20S TO LOW
30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN IN THE LOW 20S WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS FLOW SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION
AND MOISTURE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ON
SUNDAY, A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT, THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE, THOUGH WILL STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
LOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE JUST
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN IN THE MID 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GOOD AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS 00Z AND SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER IN THE TERMINALS
WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE GUSTING AT THAT TIME. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS OF 2-3K DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS FOR A FEW
HOURS, PERSISTING LONGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
OUTLOOK...CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPACT
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. PERIODIC NON-VFR WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW
EXPECTED THIS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 TO NEARLY 40 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TODAY TO 7 PM EST
TOMORROW FROM VERMILION TO RIPLEY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TODAY TO 12 PM EST
TOMORROW FROM MAUMEE BAY TO VERMILION
SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOME S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AND FRESHEN GRADUALLY TO AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS BY THIS EARLY EVENING AS A RIDGE EXITS E'WARD FROM THE LAKE
ERIE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A DEEPENING LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY ENE'WARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. WAVES OF MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS
MORNING. OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS ARE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
WATERS. DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WAVES BUILD TO AS
LARGE AS 4 TO 8 FEET, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT E'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEEPENS FURTHER WHILE MOVING ENE'WARD
FROM SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO QC, A WARM FRONT WILL SWEEP
NE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SW'ERLY WINDS AS
STRONG AS 25 TO 32 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS
STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROJECTED
PATH OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT GENERALLY N'WARD AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. WAVES AS LARGE AS 5 TO 11 FEET ARE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
ON WEDNESDAY, SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT
DAYBREAK WILL EASE TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING AS A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THEN THE
AXIS OF A NARROW RIDGE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD WESTERN
NY. IN RESPONSE, WINDS SHIFT TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WAVES AS LARGE AS 5 TO 11 FEET AT
DAYBREAK SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 5 FEET OR LESS BY EARLY EVENING, WHEN THE
LARGEST WAVES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS.
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, THE RIDGE EXITS E'WARD, A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE, AND A POTENT LOW WOBBLES
E'WARD IN VICINITY OF THE CANADA/NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES BORDER
AND LAKE SUPERIOR. ACCORDINGLY, S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO
NEARLY 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN TO AROUND
20 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. ANY LINGERING 4 TO 5 FOOTERS IN OPEN U.S
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS IN ALL
U.S. WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING, WAVES SHOULD
REBUILD TO AS LARGE AS 6 TO 12 FEET. THE LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED
EAST OF THE ISLANDS BASED ON OUR WIND AND FETCH FORECAST. ANOTHER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS PROBABLE.
S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS FRESHEN TO ABOUT 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND VEER TO
W'ERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT LOW WOBBLES NE'WARD TOWARD WEST-
CENTRAL QC, DEEPENS, AND ALLOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP E'WARD
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WAVES AS LARGE AS 7 TO 14 FEET ARE FORECAST AND A
GALE WARNING STILL APPEARS PROBABLE. BEHIND THE FRONT, A TROUGH
SHOULD LINGER OVER LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. WSW'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY WINDS SHOULD EASE
GRADUALLY TO AROUND 15 TO 30 KNOTS AND WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE SLOWLY
TO 8 FEET OR LESS BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. NOTE: A SEICHE IS LIKELY
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PROBABLY PROMPT A LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, THE AXIS OF THE NARROW RIDGE SHOULD TRAVERSE
LAKE ERIE FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE, A WARM
FRONT SHOULD SWEEP N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. ACCORDINGLY,
W'ERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BACK TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WAVES AS LARGE AS 4 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ON SATURDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXIT E'WARD AND INTERACT WITH A DEEPENING LOW THAT
SHOULD WOBBLE E'WARD IN VICINITY OF THE MN/ON BORDER AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS SHOULD FRESHEN TO AROUND 20 TO 30
KNOTS. WAVES AS LARGE AS 5 TO 9 FEET ARE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE ISLANDS
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...10
MARINE...JASZKA
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