725
FXUS61 KCLE 162102
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND DEAMPLIFY
AS IT DOES. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA BY BEING DOMINATE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH SOME AREAS IN NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA STAYING IN THE UPPER 20S. ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE REGION. THERE WILL BE A VORT
MAX THAT WILL REACH DOWN SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE ENERGY WILL STAY TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DRY MID LEVEL THAT WILL CONFINED TO
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LOW CHANCE PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY MORNING MAINLY BEFORE
12Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WITHIN THAT AREA THAT THE PRECIPITATION
COULD FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS IS A
FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING SINCE ONLY A COUPLE OF
MODELS, MAINLY THE NAM WHICH DOES TEND TO OVERFORECAST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. BUT REGARDLESS, IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION, ROADS AND
WALKWAYS COULD BECOME SLICK IF UNTREATED WITH THE GROUND
TEMPERATURES STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING DUE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
OUT QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ON THURSDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING IMPACTS TO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AND INCREASING SURFACE LEVEL
WINDS/GUSTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. MODELS WILL DEPICT
LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 925MB AT 45-55 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, THOUGH WITH IT BEING WAA IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
GET ALL OF THOSE WINDS TO TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
CURRENTLY, GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30-35 MPH WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, THE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO DECREASE
OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY WIND GUSTS THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING THURSDAY MORNING AND PEAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ALLOWING FOR QPF TOTALS TO BE AROUND 0.50" WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
SEEING TOTALS NEAR AN INCH. CURRENTLY FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN FOR
THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LOWER QPF AND THAT THE REGION IS STILL
RECOVERING FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM THE PAST FEW MONTHS. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE STRONG CAA AND ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING
OUT WEST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO THE EAST. WITH THE STRONG CAA,
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET FROM THE 8C THEY WERE DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY TO AROUND -12C BY FRIDAY WHICH HAS TRENDED WARMER OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AT ANY RATE, THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOW BELT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
A NORTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THESE SHOWERS WILL LAST INTO
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND END ONCE THE INCOMING RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS AND LIMITING MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST THEY HAVE BEEN IN A FEW
WEEKS DUE TO THE STRONG WAA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLE HITTING THE 50S. THOUGH,
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND BE DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES WON'T RECOVER MUCH AS WE'LL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE HIGH 20S TO LOW
30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN IN THE LOW 20S WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS FLOW SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION
AND MOISTURE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ON
SUNDAY, A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT, THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE, THOUGH WILL STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO NORTHEASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
LOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE JUST
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN IN THE MID 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GOOD AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS EXPECTED
INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
TOWARDS 00Z AND SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER IN THE TERMINALS
WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE GUSTING AT THAT TIME. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE
SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS OF 2-3K DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS FOR A FEW
HOURS, PERSISTING LONGER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
OUTLOOK...CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPACT
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. PERIODIC NON-VFR WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW
EXPECTED THIS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 TO NEARLY 40 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN VEER TO
WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF VERMILION THROUGH NOON AND TO THE
EAST THROUGH 7 PM. A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, LIFTING A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WINDS RAMP UP TO 30 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY TO 35 KNOT GALES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS A COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE WINDOW OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
COULD RESULT IN LOW WATER CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE.
WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE AS THE WAVES
SUBSIDE. ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN HEADLINES IS LIKELY AS WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AND RAMP UP TO 20-30 KNOTS AGAIN AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO WESTERLY
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVERAGE HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE LAKE ERIE
ISLANDS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FOR ICE FREE AREAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STRONG WINDS THIS WEEK COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO BREAK UP THE ICE ON THE WESTERN BASIN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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