056
FXUS61 KCLE 172358
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MAKE IT WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, TRANSITING THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM JET LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
TOMORROW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
THURSDAY. ONSET OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION HAS SLOWED
SLIGHTLY, WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AREA-WIDE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH IS
LIKELY THURSDAY, WITH TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY, WITH A WARM SECTOR LOW-
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS. MODEST INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION AND A
FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WINDS THURSDAY WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 30-40 MPH, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO
45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL AID STRONGER
GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED DURING
PRECIPITATION, WHICH IS LIKELY TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
RESULTING IN REDUCED MIXING AND PRECLUDING ANY STRONGER GUSTS. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ERIE COUNTY, PA WHERE HIGHER
GUSTS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE REALIZED.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING
FOR COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO RAPIDLY DROP TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY
RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5" EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA,
AND 1-3" IN NORTHEAST OHIO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A "SEE-SAW" PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING MILD/BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARILY VFR TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW, ONLY HAVE MENTION OF THIS AT
TOL/FDY AND CLE, THOUGH FUTURE INCLUSIONS WILL BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT TAG UPDATE.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LLWS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET
OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY FAVORING A SOUTH TO EVEN SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT TIMES,
10 TO 15 KNOTS. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 22 KNOTS, AND
SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH, DECREASING THE LLWS THREAT. SOUTH
WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST AROUND 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. WEST WINDS
MAY ALSO GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FROM
VERMILION TO RIPLEY
- GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7 PM THURSDAY EVENING TO 7 PM
FRIDAY EVENING FROM VERMILION TO RIPLEY
NOTE: THE LATEST AVAILABLE ICE ANALYSIS INDICATES MOST OF THE
WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE, INCLUDING SANDUSKY BAY, IS ICE-COVERED.
THE FOLLOWING WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST VALUES ARE FOR ICE-FREE WATERS.
MILDER WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW, ALONG WITH PERIODIC AND
RELATIVELY-STRONG WINDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SHOULD CAUSE THE ICE
TO DECAY.
ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE FROM WEST THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WILLOWICK EASTWARD UNTIL 7 PM. A LULL IN ELEVATED WINDS IS EXPECTED
WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA AFTER 00Z THU. A DEEP SURFACE
LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF LAKE
ERIE BY 09Z THURSDAY AND REST OF THE LAKE BY 12Z THURSDAY. WILL
ALLOW THE EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE AND ISSUE A NEW SCA FOR THIS
SEPARATE WIND EVENT FOR THE LAKE EARLY THURSDAY.
SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO INCREASE 45 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND COOL
WATERS WILL PREVENT THOSE WINDS FROM COMPLETELY MIXING DOWN. LATER
PACKAGES WILL HAVE MONITOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LULL IN WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LAKE BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z FRIDAY. WESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MIX
DOWN ON THE LAKE AND YIELD GALE FORCE WINDS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FROM VERMILION TO EAST TO NEW
YORK WATERS 00Z FRI TO 00Z SAT
PROLONG STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DISPLACE LAKE LEVEL FROM THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SEICHE IS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY PROMPT A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR
THE WESTERN BASIN.
A RIDGE AXIS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE IN AND ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE
QUICKLY FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS REACHING SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND REACHING SCA THROUGH SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
PAZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
LEZ144>149-164>169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS/27
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/27
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS/27
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS/27
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...FZ
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