576
FXUS61 KCLE 221118
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
618 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY. MILDER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND THEN
COLDER LATE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OHIO VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN WEST OF THE REGION WHILE
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING IN WHAT WILL BECOME A MILDER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT IN MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT, WHICH WILL MAKE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPES SLIGHTLY CHALLENGING. LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT SNOW, BUT TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE
COULD CHANGE THIS TO BRIEF FREEZING RAIN IN THE EASTERN HALF OF ERIE
AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN PA. OTHERWISE, FURTHER WEST, SHOULD BE A
TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW TO LIGHT RAIN AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CATCH UP TO THE TEMPERATURES OFF THE DECK. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND ICE WILL BE LIGHT, BUT WILL NEED TO REASSESS THE ICE ON THE DAY
SHIFT TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY FOR THE BRIEF FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE
NEEDED. SUSTAINED COLD WEATHER OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS MADE SURFACE
CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE WITH A COLD GROUND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
END WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH ON TUESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES
PRIOR TO PASSAGE WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 40S EAST AND NEAR 50F FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED AGAIN BY WARM AIR ADVECTION ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL BECOME DRAPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER A BRIEF DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LATE TUESDAY COLD FRONT, THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SURGE WITH WIDESPREAD 50S EXCEPT FOR FAR NE OH AND NW PA WITH
THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WARM SECTOR CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT,
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH, AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND POSSIBLY 60S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES, AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE 50S. STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT LATE WEEKEND WILL BRING
AN AIRMASS CHANGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BACK DOWN BELOW
FREEZING.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW CHANGES TO LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM GRADUALLY ABOVE FREEZING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE ACHIEVED WHEN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE RAMPS UP AFTER
03Z TONIGHT, AND COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITIES DROP IN
PRECIPITATION AS WELL, LIKELY MVFR AS WELL. CEILINGS COULD GO TO
IFR LATER TONIGHT FOR MFD AND POSSIBLY CLE AS WELL. WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15KTS, STRONGER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS
TODAY WHERE GUSTS AT TOL/FDY COULD REACH 20KTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW STRATUS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS,
THOUGH WINDS MAY EXCEED 20 KNOTS AT TIMES ON TUESDAY. WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE DECREASING TO
15 KNOTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS RETURN
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST,
REMAINING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WEAK LOW WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20
KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
MARINE...13
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