853
FXUS61 KCLE 222344
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY
EVENING, BUT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN A
SWATH OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AT THE
MOMENT SO MOST OF IT ISN'T REACHING THE SURFACE, HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SURFACE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL TO THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH
ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS (IF THAT) ANTICIPATED. A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING POPS TONIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ANTICIPATE A
BURST OF SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING BEFORE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWS PRECIP TO MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE'S
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR NW PA (PRIMARILY EASTERN
ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTIES) BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09Z AND 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOVE FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL ICE ACCUMULATIONS
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY;
THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IS QUITE NARROW AND COVERAGE MAY
BE LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. WORST CASE SCENARIO, AN
SPS FOR ICY CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. FROM THERE, DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT THANKS TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT, ALTHOUGH MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED BEFORE WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY WITH LOWER 50S LIKELY IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
TUESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF CHRISTMAS EVE AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MAINTAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA AND A SHORTWAVE
CRESTS THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL LARGELY BE RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE,
HOWEVER TEMPS MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS INTERIOR NW PA FOR
SOME WET SNOW, A RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND/OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOW OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIPPLES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, BUT
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL START TO OCCUR ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
CHRISTMAS DAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THERE WON'T BE MUCH
OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY HAVE TRENDED COOLER WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOW TO MID 50S FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS TERMINALS TONIGHT BRINGING AREAWIDE
RAIN SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR LIKELY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST RAIN. SHOWERS WILL
EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AT 15-20 KNOTS
TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT 15-20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. GIVEN VERY
MARGINAL CONDITIONS, NOT EXPECTING THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW IMPACTS THE LAKE FOR THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CALM UNTIL THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EAST WINDS RAMP UP TO 15-20
KNOTS. THIS LOW WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13
MARINE...04
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