707
FXUS61 KCLE 231131
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING IN FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE LOCAL AREA IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MAINLY
RAIN) TO NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. THE LOW'S TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST
BUT LITTLE OTHER FANFARE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
IT'LL REMAIN MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z/7 AM
THIS MORNING THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET MAY MIX IN ACROSS NORTHWEST
PA BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN, WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS (MAINLY EAST OF
I-79) UNDER 0.5". OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF A FEW COLDER SPOTS EAST OF
I-79 IN NORTHWEST PA, IT IS ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE,
LIMITING CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN. A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT IS OUT FOR
THE BRIEF/MARGINAL POTENTIAL AND WILL JUST ABOUT COVER IT. RAIN CHANCES
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, THOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OH / NORTHWEST PA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TOWARDS FINDLAY AND MARION LIKELY
PUSHING 50. LOWS TONIGHT MID 20S TO NEAR 30, WITH DRY WEATHER AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE GOOD NEWS REMAINS THE EXPECTATION OF DRY AND LOW-IMPACT WEATHER
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...THE BAD NEWS REMAINS THE LACK OF FALLING
SNOW OR SNOW ON THE GROUND, THOUGH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY CONTINUE TO TREND "LESS WARM" COMPARED TO EARLIER FORECASTS.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A
DRY DAY BENEATH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE.
A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT, BUT
WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY
FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH, WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP TO MIX IN,
THOUGH YET ANOTHER MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
MAY EXIST IN FAR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
IF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CAN SPREAD INTO AREAS THAT HAVE A CHANCE
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL, A LOW
CONFIDENCE AND LOW IMPACT SCENARIO REGARDING ANY MIXED PRECIP.
THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, LEAVING DRY BUT CLOUDIER WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY AS
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S, WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA LIKELY
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOST OF
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY, THOUGH SOME RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
MAY SPREAD IN LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, COLDEST NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND
MILDEST TO THE SOUTHWEST. MORE ON THIS SUDDENLY TRICKIER MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO START FRIDAY BELOW...
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
YET ANOTHER IN OUR SERIES OF RELATIVELY FLAT SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE
LOWS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, LIFTING THE FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ON THURSDAY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY,
WITH THE FRONT SETTLING BACK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THE STRONGEST OF THE FEW THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEK, BRINGING
THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OF THEM ALL.
THERE HAS BEEN A PRETTY NOTABLE TREND AMONG THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
GUIDANCE FOR COLD AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PRESS INTO THE
NORTHEAST MORE AGGRESSIVELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TYPES OTHER THAN RAIN
TO MIX IN ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA ON THE FRINGES OF THAT COLDER
AIRMASS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS PRETTY WELL AGREED UPON TO SPREAD IN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, EXITING FRIDAY EVENING TO THE
EAST. IT MAY BE COLD/DRY ENOUGH ALOFT INITIALLY TO SUPPORT A BIT OF
SNOW/SLEET ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA AS PRECIP SPREADS IN,
THOUGH GENERALLY LIQUID IS FAVORED. THE CONCERN IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS, WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM ON FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUS
EXPECTATIONS IF COLDER TRENDS IN GUIDANCE DISCUSSED ABOVE PROVE TO BE
CORRECT. THIS COULD GIVE A WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO
FRIDAY WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES LAG THE WARMING ALOFT...MOST LIKELY
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA, BUT WITH AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF NORTHERN OHIO, WITH TOLEDO,
CLEVELAND AND AKRON/CANTON IN PLAY FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY, WITH GREATER ODDS FOR MAINLY OR ALL
RAIN FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THAT. THE EXACT SPEED/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
WILL MATTER A LOT...THE 0Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE A FASTER, FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK AND HAVE MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA, WHEREAS THE
CMC HAS A SLOWER, FARTHER NORTH TRACK WITH NEARLY ALL RAIN FOR US. THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED COOLER, THOUGH INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SHOW
PLENTY OF SPREAD. THIS FORECAST UPDATE HAS SOMEWHAT EXPANDED THE
MENTION OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE SITUATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FLUID AT
THIS POINT...CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES. FORECAST HIGHS ON FRIDAY
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN PA TO THE LOWER 50S IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST, BUT FURTHER TRENDS ARE POSSIBLE/LIKELY IN THOSE REGARDS.
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY, WINTER LOOKS TO REMIND US
THAT IT'S HERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN AMPLIFIED AND WELL-PHASED TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERE'S DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS, BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT
LIKELY WILL CROSS ON SUNDAY, WITH COLD/CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING BEHIND
IT TO START NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST A BRIEF SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET, WITH
A PERIOD OF GUSTIER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT POSSIBLE TOO.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AFTER IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING, EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT COMES
THROUGH DURING THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME TODAY AS THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION, SO NOT ROLLING WITH ANY
PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR ERI AND YNG FOR A COUPLE HOURS
THIS MORNING. ULTIMATELY COULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE
CEILINGS TO LIFT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE TERMINALS FURTHER EAST
INCLUDING YNG AND ERI. WINDS GUSTING WITH THE COLD FRONT WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY, TURNING WESTERLY, AROUND 20KTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
DECREASE IN STRENGTH BELOW 12KTS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING OFFSHORE WINDS
WESTERLY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING 15-20KTS, AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT 15-20KTS, DECREASING TO 10KTS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WILL REACH
THE 3-5FT RANGE FROM CLEVELAND EAST. WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN ONSHORE THURSDAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS 2-3FT,
TURNING EASTERLY 10-20KTS DUE TO A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1-3FT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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