697
FXUS61 KCLE 232001
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
301 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THIS AFTERNOON, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS ALREADY PIVOTED EAST OF THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS TO BE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT FLURRIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS, BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST THE MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF. DREARY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
HOWEVER WITH SOME FOG/MIST LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES, WITH A FEW ISOLATED PEAKS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, OVERCAST SKIES WILL RETURN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. AS THIS
WARM FRONT NUDGES NORTH, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN WHICH SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT
WITH LESS THAN 0.1" OF QPF EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THIS YEAR, THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS, BUT THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD,
HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY INSTEAD OF THURSDAY. SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE A BRIEF SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH AND DRIES THE AREA OUT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH DRY, IT IS UNFORTUNATELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY THE
ENTIRE DAY WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE POTENTIAL. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, WHICH HAS GENERALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD
OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT, A TRANSITION FROM THE BRIEF RIDGE TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCUR, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE MOST NOTABLE PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH A POTENTIALLY TRICKY FORECAST AT HAND
GIVEN THE TIMING AND OVERALL TREND OF LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN
BEFORE. INITIALLY, ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION, A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW WILL OCCUR BEFORE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO OVERRIDE THE AREA IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS, LEAVING SURFACE TEMPERATURES LINGERING NEAR FREEZING.
THIS LAG IN TIMING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM WITH THE WAA MAY
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX OR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA, HOWEVER MOST LARGE CITIES IN THE CWA HAVE A NON-ZERO
CHANCE. PERSONS TRAVELING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD USE CAUTION AS
UNTREATED SURFACES MAY BE SLICK.
BY MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY, ALL PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO RAINFALL
WHICH WILL END WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BECOMING MOSTLY DRY
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING, BUT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS, INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN QPF
TOTALS UP TO 0.5" IN MANY PLACES, LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS FAR NEOH AND
NWPA. FLOOD CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME NUISANCE FLOODING IN TYPICAL
LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S BEFORE STEADILY WARMING ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
40S. SOME SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY EVEN REACH INTO THE MID 50S
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE WARMER AIR ALOFT REACHES THE SURFACE.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY
QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY BEFORE AN ARCTIC LOW SURGES SOUTH SUNDAY
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BEHIND IT. THIS
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN THE RETURN OF WINTER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
20S ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATELY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT MAY IMPACTS BOTH NE OH AND NW PA SNOWBELTS. IN
ADDITION, INCREASED GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS AND WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE TO SUBZERO DIGITS. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT DOES APPEAR TO BE ONE
OF THE STRONG ONES IN THIS STRING OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS GRADUAL
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES TO TRAP MOISTURE BELOW AN
INVERSION. CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR JUST NORTH OF TOLEDO AND
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE WHICH PRESENTS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOL REGARDING WHEN LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR. BEST
ESTIMATES ARE THAT AN MVFR CEILING WILL REMAIN THROUGH 20Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AT FDY AND MFD AND POSSIBLY FOR A FEW
HOURS AT CLE BETWEEN 00-04Z. STRATUS IS LIKELY TO HOLD ON AT
EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AT FDY AND MFD AS
WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT IS MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME TO SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LOW MVFR AND THEN SEE A STRATUS DECK
DEVELOP GIVEN SOME LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL HAVE BOTH SITES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE EASTERN
TERMINALS HOLD ONTO AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WITH JUST HIGH CLOUD
LIKELY AT TOL. WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND MAY
INFREQUENTLY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AND COULD SEE WIND GUSTS FOR A HANDFUL OF HOURS ALONG
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO EASTERLY AND
DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
VEERING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS WAVES BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET FROM CLEVELAND
EASTWARD UNTIL 4 AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
STRENGTHEN TO 10-20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE LAKES WITH CHOPPY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE NEXT IMPACTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER COMES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP TO
30 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY REACH GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION, COULD SEE ANOTHER LOW WATER
EPISODE ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE IF WINDS END UP MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THAN WESTERLY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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