781
FXUS61 KCLE 241739
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1239 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BEFORE A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. AFTER HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, GIVING A BRIEF BREAK
BETWEEN SYSTEMS LOCALLY. BETWEEN LOWER-LEVEL STRATUS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA, AND HIGHER-LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST IT WILL NOT BE THE CLEANEST HIGH PRESSURE,
THOUGH WILL BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LIFT AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE FOR SHOWERS
TO ACCOMPANY IT ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OR SO OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT
SHOWERS MAY HAVE A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN FAR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA TO THE UPPER
30S CLOSER TO FINDLAY/MARION. THOSE SUB-FREEZING LOWS IN OUR NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT AND SHOULD MODESTLY RISE OVERNIGHT,
LIMITING THE CONCERN FOR ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD ANY VERY LIGHT
PRECIP REACH INTO FAR NORTHEAST OH OR NORTHWEST PA.
ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, QUICKLY
DRYING OUT ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AND LEAVING A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA TO
THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN OHIO.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
-INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL MIXED PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN, ACROSS NORTHWEST PA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTER DURATION OF
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OH ON FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY
NEAR TOLEDO AND IN FAR NORTHEAST OH.
MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND QUIET AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DIVE OUT OF
THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN INTERIOR PA TO THE LOWER 30S TOWARDS
FINDLAY AND MARION, ANOTHER TICK COOLER AS HAS BEEN THE RECENT TREND.
SHIFTING INTO FRIDAY, THERE'S HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP SPREADING INTO
THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE REMAINS 6 OR SO HOURS OF
DIFFERENCE IN THE ONSET TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST
AMONG VARIOUS GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST
PA WHERE THERE WILL BE A DRY EAST FLOW BEHIND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND. A QUICKER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WOULD GIVE LESS
TIME FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM AHEAD OF IT, INCREASING THE
CONCERN FOR IMPACTFUL MIXED PRECIPITATION, WHEREAS A SLOWER ONSET
WOULD ALLOW MORE OF OUR AREA TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP
STARTS. THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF QPF IS BECOMING BETTER-AGREED-UPON TO
TRACK FROM SE MICHIGAN ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA, WITH A SWATH OF 0.40-0.75" LIKELY, TRENDING TOWARDS OR
UNDER 0.25" TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS FINDLAY-MT VERNON. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LIKELY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM
WEST-NORTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PRECIP THEN
EXITS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST DIFFICULTY FOR THE FRIDAY SYSTEM REMAINS POTENTIAL
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL PUSH A SHALLOW DRY/CHILLY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN WARMER. WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES, JUST RAIN SHOULD RESULT.
IT MAY BE CHILLY/DRY ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME INITIAL SNOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA, THOUGH IN GENERAL SOME COMBINATION OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN (WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET) IS CURRENTLY FAVORED FOR
THE BULK OF THE EVENT, EVEN ACROSS NORTHWEST PA. THAT MAKES THE TIMING
OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING (IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET AND HOW MUCH QPF OCCURS BEFORE WARMING)
CRITICAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF OHIO
ON FRIDAY, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS...NEAR TOLEDO, WHERE THE LOW MAY TRACK
JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND OFF THE ICY WATERS
OF WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND SLOW ANY WARMING, ALONG WITH FAR NORTHEAST
OH WHERE BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD/DRY AIRMASS AND MORE TERRAIN MAY
SUPPORT A SLOWER WARMING. GUIDANCE IS GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING NORTHWEST PA TAKING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
TO WARM MORE SUBSTANTIALLY, GIVING A MORE CONFIDENT AND CONCERNING
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION/ICE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
IN NORTHWEST PA BUT LIKELY SPIKING WELL INTO THE 40S SOUTH OF US 30.
OVERALL, NORTHWEST PA SHOULD PLAN ON AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLS
AS FREEZING RAIN (WITH LIMITED SNOW/SLEET), ICE ACCRETION MAY EXCEED
A QUARTER-INCH, BRINGING TREE/POWER-OUTAGE CONCERNS INTO PLAY. A WATCH
(DRIVEN BY ICING CONCERNS, NOT SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS) WAS CONSIDERED FOR
NORTHWEST PA WITH THIS UPDATE, THOUGH FOR NOW WAS HELD OFF ON. AT THE
LEAST, AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THERE AND WE CAN STILL PUT OUT A
WATCH TODAY IF TRENDS HOLD. POTENTIAL IS TRICKER IN OHIO, THOUGH THE
TOLEDO AREA AND FAR NORTHEAST OH APPEAR TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
(OVER 50%) IN AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN AT
PRECIPITATION ONSET. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN DECREASES ACROSS THE
REST OF NORTHERN OHIO, THOUGH AS THE PRIOR DISCUSSION MENTIONED
NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA DOES HAVE AT LEAST A MODEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING A BIT. AFTER THE RECENT/ONGOING MILDER WEATHER, A BRIEF WINDOW
OF MARGINAL FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WOULDN'T BE IMPACTFUL, THOUGH A MORE
SOLID PERIOD OF IT COULD LEAD TO SOME CONSIDERATION FOR WINTER WX
ADVISORIES INTO AT LEAST SOME OF OUR OHIO COUNTIES AS WE GET CLOSER.
OVERALL, WOULD SAY CONCERN IN OHIO WILL BE HIGHEST WHERE PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES QUICKER, LIMITING ABILITY FOR THE AIR/GROUND TO WARM.
WE DRY OUT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S IN FAR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA TO THE MID-UPPER
30S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ALOFT, RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL WRAP IN A LOBE OF THE TROPOSPHERIC POLAR
VORTEX AND DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND
TOWARDS TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ON SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND TAKEOVER NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND MOST OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP ON SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WHILE WE MAY GET BRUSHED BY WRAP-AROUND SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES TO OUR NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, MOST GUIDANCE (OUTSIDE OF
THE 0Z CMC) CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY TOO FAR TO OUR
NORTHEAST TO GET INTO THAT. WHAT IS CONFIDENT IS A PERIOD OF QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SETS UP AMID THE DEEP COLD AIRMASS THAT GETS PULLED IN
UNDER THE HEART OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON
SPECIFIC DETAILS (SUCH AS WIND DIRECTION, TEMPERATURE PROFILES,
MOISTURE, AND DURATION), A MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS PRESENTED BY
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT IMPACTFUL/HEADLINE-
WORTHY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW INTO AT LEAST THE PRIMARY
SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER WITH POTENTIALLY
SOME PASSING FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS, BUT LIKELY NOT MUCH SNOW OUTSIDE
OF THE LAKE EFFECT. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 20S AND LOWS IN THE 10S ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING OR DIPPING BELOW 0 AT TIMES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DETERIORATION TO
MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF POCKETS OF IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT SITES NEAR
THE US-30 CORRIDOR (FDY/MFD/CAK). CAN'T RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AS
WELL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH, CLOSER TO
CENTRAL OH. LOW-END MVFR AND/OR IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FILTER
IN BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LOWER VSBYS FROM MIST/DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORING A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, 5 TO 8 KNOTS, BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT,
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MIXED-
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
NON-VFR IS LIKELY TO RETURN ON SUNDAY IN WIDESPREAD RAIN,
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WEST TO EAST, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LAKE FOR FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WAVE HEIGHTS LESS
THAN 2 FEET THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, BUT INCREASING TO 2-4FT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10-20KTS, AND
THEN EASTERLY 10-20KTS. WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 10KTS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS LESS THAN 2FT, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY SUNDAY INCREASING TO 20-25KTS. STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS 30-35KTS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS LIKELY IN THE 6-10FT RANGE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...26
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