711
FXUS61 KCLE 241833
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CLIP THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT,
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW AND MARKING THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION.
WITH THIS UPDATE, THE SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
SOUTH COMPARED TO PRIOR, ALLOWING FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO
OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLENTY OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND NUISANCE FLOODING BRIEFLY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A NON-
ZERO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER AS MODELS SUGGEST MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING WITH
ALL SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z THURSDAY AS A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY CHRISTMAS DAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDY SKIES ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES,
GRADUALLY WARMING AS ONE MOVES SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SEE THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON THE UPCOMING WINTER MIX.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AN IMPACTFUL MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT IS LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH ADDITIONAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS
ACCUMULATING ICE DUE TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WITH 0.1 TO 0.3
INCHES OF ICE POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 0.1 INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN
PA. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE, BUT WOULD BE
ISSUED WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
NOW LOOKING AT MORE OF THE INTRICACIES OF THIS TRICKY FORECAST... ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, THE TRICKY PART IS
IN WHAT FORM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED WARM AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID LAYERS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A LAYER OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, LENDING TO MELTING PRECIPITATION. THE TRICKY
PART IS HOW QUICKLY THE WAA KICKS IN AT THE SURFACE TO HELP BRING
THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THERE AS WELL. MANY MODELS MAINTAIN
SURFACES WINDS WITH A EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
VERY GRADUALLY WARMING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE SWATCH OF HEAVIEST QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
AND INTO NORTHWEST PA. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING ICE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS
NWPA WHERE HIGHER QPF AND PROLONGED COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.1-0.3 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION.
AS WAA GRADUALLY INCREASES SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS GAIN A
MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT FREEZE TO
SURFACES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS OCCURRING FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.
AS WITH ANY FORECAST RELATED TO WINTER WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION
TYPES, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND ANY MINOR CHANGES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO DRAMATICALLY SHIFT THE FORECAST. THE BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS ACROSS NWOH AS THERE REMAINS SOME
DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THIS UPDATE, THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT TREND IN THAT LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTH A BIT, WHICH MAY POSE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NWOH, INCLUDING THE TOLEDO METRO. WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS ADDITIONAL WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED OUTSIDE OF NWPA.
BY LATE FRIDAY, ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED POPS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD FRIDAY NIGHT, FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. SATURDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT ACROSS THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S BEFORE COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ON SUNDAY, A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SUPPORT
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
MOVING A ROBUST COLD FRONT EAST AND ULTIMATELY MARKING THE RETURN OF
WINTER THE AREA. MUCH OF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH QPF TOTALS OF 0.25 TO 0.7
INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF -14 TO - 16C MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHICH
REMAINS ABOVE 0C WILL RESULT IN MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE, EXTENT, OR
EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOWFALL, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE
EFFECT OCCURRING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, CLIMBING INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COOL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. PERIODS OF SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DETERIORATION TO
MVFR AND PERHAPS BRIEF POCKETS OF IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT SITES NEAR
THE US-30 CORRIDOR (FDY/MFD/CAK). CAN'T RULE OUT SOME THUNDER AS
WELL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH, CLOSER TO
CENTRAL OH. LOW-END MVFR AND/OR IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FILTER
IN BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LOWER VSBYS FROM MIST/DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORING A LIGHT EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, 5 TO 8 KNOTS, BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT,
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND MIXED-
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
NON-VFR IS LIKELY TO RETURN ON SUNDAY IN WIDESPREAD RAIN,
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WEST TO EAST, FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LAKE FOR FRIDAY AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WAVE HEIGHTS LESS
THAN 2 FEET THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, BUT INCREASING TO 2-4FT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WAVES BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10-20KTS, AND
THEN EASTERLY 10-20KTS. WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 10KTS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS LESS THAN 2FT, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY SUNDAY INCREASING TO 20-25KTS. STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS 30-35KTS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS LIKELY IN THE 6-10FT RANGE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page