239
FXUS61 KCLE 251129
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OUT OF CANADA BRIEFLY CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DIVING INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING, SPARKING SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE IT'S
CERTAINLY BEEN INTERESTING TO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ON
THE SCOPE DURING THE WEE HOURS OF CHRISTMAS MORNING, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXIT BEFORE MOST FOLKS WAKE UP. THIS WILL LEAVE A
DRY BUT GENERALLY CLOUDIER CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TODAY AS MODEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN ON INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER PERHAPS A BRIEF WINDOW OF PARTIAL CLEARING
THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST, CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
HOLD DRY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BIT OF
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TO APPROACH I-75 TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY.
WHILE CONDITIONS WON'T FAVOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT,
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, WARMEST SOUTHWEST. FAR
NORTHEAST OHIO/NORTHWEST PA WILL DROP FARTHER THROUGH THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL DIVE OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTFUL MIXED PRECIPITATION REMAINS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
PA, WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. ELSEWHERE, SOME BRIEFER AND
GENERALLY MORE MINOR IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OHIO,
PARTICULARLY NEAR TOLEDO AND IN FAR NORTHEAST OHIO, BEFORE A
QUICKER WARM-UP AND CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN OCCURS ACROSS MUCH OF
OHIO LATER FRIDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
GENERAL EXPECTATIONS REMAIN THAT PRECIP WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING, GETTING INTO PA BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE DRY LOW-LEVELS ARE OVERCOME. FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH AT PRECIP
ONSET FOR EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TO RESULT...HOWEVER,
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW OR SLEET IN FAR NORTHEAST OH
NEAR ONSET BEFORE WARMING ALOFT QUICKLY PUSHES ANY MIX OVER TO
JUST RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. THERE WILL BE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
A WINDOW OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET ACROSS NORTHWEST PA, THOUGH
EVEN THERE WARMING ALOFT WILL BE QUITE STRONG DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND FORCE A CHANGE TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. ACROSS OHIO,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THE TOLEDO AREA, DUE TO EARLIER PRECIP
ARRIVAL AND PERHAPS SOME HELP FROM WINDS OFF THE ICY LAKE ERIE,
HAS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES BEING BELOW FREEZING AT
PRECIPITATION ONSET LEADING TO FREEZING RAIN. FAR NORTHEAST OHIO
MAY ALSO BE SLOWER TO WARM INITIALLY DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND MORE TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS OHIO CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN IS
LOWER, THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE...TEMPERATURES TRENDING A COUPLE
OF DEGREES UP OR DOWN WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE. PRECIP ONSET
TIMING COULD ALSO COME INTO PLAY, AS FASTER/SLOWER ARRIVAL WILL
GIVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS/MORE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST PA WILL TAKE MUCH OF FRIDAY TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-79 WHERE THAT MAY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL PRECIP IS WINDING DOWN. THE LAKESHORE IN NORTHWEST
PA SHOULD WARM A BIT QUICKER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
IN TERMS OF CHANGES AMONG GUIDANCE, THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE
TREND AMONG ESSENTIALLY ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TO
TRACK THE LOW ON FRIDAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH, WITH ENSEMBLES
GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A LOW TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS ALSO TRENDED JUST
A BIT QUICKER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE LOW ALSO SHOWN TO
PRESS IN SLIGHTLY LESS. THIS ALL ON THE BALANCE LEADS TO A
SLIGHTLY SHORTER WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION, A QPF AXIS THAT HAS
NUDGED A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND TRENDED DOWN MODESTLY, AND THE
WARM FRONT AND STRONGER SURFACE WARMING LIKELY PUSHING NORTH A
BIT QUICKER. WITH THAT SAID, THIS IS STILL A CHALLENGING
FORECAST GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT COLD/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, WITH
REGIONAL AND HI-RES MODELS (SUCH AS THE NAM AND VARIOUS WRF
CORES) HOLDING ON TO LOW-LEVEL COLD NOTABLY LONGER THAN MOST OF
THE COURSER GLOBAL MODELS. WHILE OVERALL QPF HAS PERHAPS TRENDED
DOWN SLIGHTLY, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE AMONG VARIOUS
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REGARDING WHERE AND HOW HEAVY THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIP IS (THE HEAVIEST AXIS IS GENERALLY FAVORED TO
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST MI ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
NY AND NORTHWEST PA). ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LIKELY
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON, AS PLAN VIEW MODEL PLOTS AND SOUNDINGS DEPICT
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COULD STILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY
NARROW SWATH OF HEAVIER QPF THAT MAY BE HARD TO PIN DOWN IN
EXACT LOCATION. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNT OF ICING (MINUS A VERY SUBTLE DOWN TREND IN PEAK ICE
AMOUNTS), THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL WHICH IS HOLDING OFF
FINAL HEADLINE DECISIONS...ESPECIALLY INTO OHIO WHERE THE ENTIRE
SETUP FOR MIXED PRECIP IS MORE BRIEF AND MARGINAL.
OVERALL, WE ARE HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF AN
IMPACTFUL WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHWEST PA, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WATCH. SLICK AND POTENTIALLY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY, AND AT THE VERY LEAST WE WILL NEED A HIGHER END WINTER
WX ADVISORY WHERE THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. UNCERTAINTIES
DESCRIBED ABOVE REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND EXACT AMOUNT OF
HEAVIER QPF IS HOLDING BACK A WARNING UPGRADE FOR NOW. ANOTHER
FACTOR IS THE SHORT WINDOW (<6 HOURS) MOST OF THE PRECIP AND
ICING POTENTIAL OCCURS IN, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOMEWHAT LESS
EFFICIENT ICE ACCRETION DUE TO RUN-OFF, THOUGH THAT DOESN'T
PRECLUDE A WARNING IF QPF IS HIGH ENOUGH TO STILL ACCRETE OVER A
QUARTER-INCH. WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT IN A SHORTER-LIVED
PERIOD OF IMPACTS IN THE TOLEDO AREA FRIDAY MORNING...THAT'S AN
AREA WE'LL LIKELY TARGET WITH AN ADVISORY ASSUMING NOTHING
CHANGES WITH NEWER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY TODAY, THOUGH IN
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HELD OFF ON ISSUING THAT
FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN OHIO, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE STATE, THOUGH AS DISCUSSED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH
OVERALL IN THESE AREAS. IT SEEMS A QUICKER PRECIPITATION ONSET
WOULD LEAD TO THE GREATEST ODDS OF IMPACTS ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTHERN OHIO DUE TO LESS OPPORTUNITY TO WARM. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING EAST OF I-79 IN PA TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE REST OF NORTHWEST PA AND FAR NORTHEAST OH,
ALONG WITH EXTREME NORTHWEST OH. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S, IF NOT
THE 50S SOUTH OF US 30. THESE WILL BE LATE-DAY HIGHS.
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST PA, THOUGH IN GENERAL THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRYING TREND. QUICKLY CALMING
SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE FOG SETUP IF
ANY CLEAR SPOTS CAN DEVELOP. LOWS IN THE 30S...
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PULL IN A (MODEST) CHUNK
OF ARCTIC AIR AND DIG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY, MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE
DRIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND THEN INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MILDER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO GO MORE ZONAL BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
AFTER A QUIET SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP WITH THE COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY. THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BRIEF BUT DECENT WARM UP
ON SUNDAY, WITH MOST OF THE AREA LOOKING TO PUSH INTO THE 50S
WITH SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS EVEN IN PLAY. THE FRONT HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER, THOUGH A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD
STILL RAPIDLY SPREAD IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND
IT. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME WRAP-AROUND SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
DEEPENING LOW WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ON MONDAY, WE WILL NOT BE IN
A SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED LOCATION FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW OUTSIDE OF
WHAT COMES OFF THE LAKE. SPEAKING OF, COLD CYCLONIC WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -14C TO -17C. WITH
SOME LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE, THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION.
THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, THOUGH THE
MAIN WINDOW LOOKS TO BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH ACTIVITY
LIKELY FOCUSING CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE (BUT PERHAPS NOT ENDING)
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND SOME WINDS VERY WELL MAY LEAD TO SOME HEADLINES
TO START NEXT WEEK IN PARTS OF THE SNOWBELT, THOUGH THE INITIAL
IMPRESSION IS THAT THIS WON'T BE A PARTICULARLY HIGHER-END
EVENT. WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT, BUT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTIEST BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN
THE VICINITY OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WE'RE LIKELY NOT
LOOKING AT MAJOR WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY,
THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE TOTALLY QUIET EITHER.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF TERMINALS IN NORTHERN OHIO BEHIND
A PASSING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL TREND BACK TO VFR AROUND 15Z/THU WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL MOVE OVER TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH AROUND 18Z/THU AND
PERSIST THROUGH ~00Z/FRI. ANOTHER WINDOW OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z/FRI THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW FRIDAY
MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN, SNOW,
SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN TO TERMINALS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TIMING AND PTYPE BUT OPTED TO PUT A PROB30 -FZRA LINE
IN THE KCLE TAF WITH THIS UPDATE. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS
PRECIPITATION REACHING WESTERN TERMINALS NEAR OR AFTER 12Z/FRI
SO HAVE A VCSH AT KTOL/KFDY FOR NOW.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS EASE BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
WHILE TURNING EASTERLY.
OUTLOOK...WINTRY MIX FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO RAIN BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTRY MIX
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW CEILINGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. NON-VFR IS LIKELY TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY IN WIDESPREAD RAIN, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
A WEAK LOW CROSSES SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. WINDS WILL TREND
NORTHERLY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO
THE EAST, WINDS TURN EASTERLY AND MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 20 KNOTS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, BEST POTENTIAL FOR 20+ KNOTS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS
WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING REMAINING BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS.
ATTENTION TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LEADING TO A WINDOW OF HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35 KNOTS ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 40 KNOTS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE
FORECAST IN THE EVENT THAT GALES ARE NEEDED. WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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