182
FXUS61 KCLE 260457
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1157 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN ON
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OFF NORTH IN CANADA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST PACKAGE, THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ON A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH
THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OUTPACE THE
SYSTEM. UNFORTUNATELY, WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STARTING IN THE 20S,
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. WHERE THE WARM
FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN NW OH AND NE OH/NW PA, THERE WILL BE A LONGER
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN AND IN TURN, ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A
SUITE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE. FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO, HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM 5 AM TO
NOON FRIDAY . FOR NORTHEAST OHIO, HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
FREEZING RAIN FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM FRIDAY. FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA,
HAVE WINTER HEADLINES FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM SATURDAY WITH AN ICE
STORM WARNING REPLACING THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN SOUTHERN ERIE AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ERIE.
AREAS NOT IN ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION, BUT PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE QUICK TO
CHANGE TO RAIN AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED TO HANDLE THE BRIEF WINDOW
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MANY, IF ANY, IMPACTS.
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES, THERE IS MORE CONSISTENCY IN
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FREEZING. COLD EAST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL HELP STAVE OFF THE
ADVANCEMENT OF WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT MAY
BE UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES IN THE TOLEDO METRO GET
ABOVE 32F. GIVEN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION, EXPECT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A LIGHT GLAZE TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE,
HIGHEST NEAR THE OHIO/MICHIGAN BORDER THROUGH NOON ON FRIDAY. AS THE
LOW ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR
MAXIMUM IN THE UPPER 30S AND SHOULD ALLOW A WINDOW OF RAIN TO HELP
ALLEVIATE ANY ICE IMPACTS.
FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA, THERE ARE INCREASING TRENDS
ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE TOTAL QPF IN THE REGION, INCLUDING THE 12Z
HREF OVER 0.50" QPF BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
ALSO INCLUDES A FAIR BIT MORE QPF BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. THEREFORE, HAVE INCREASED ICE TOTALS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH MORE APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS IN NE OH. GIVEN A TOUCH
MORE CERTAINTY IN 0.25" OF ICE IN NW PA, HAVE OPTED FOR THE ICE
STORM WARNING. THE TREND IN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION IS DOWN BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO ICE. THE SYSTEM IS DELAYED ENOUGH WITH THE WARM
NOSE ENTERING THAT THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE RIGHT TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AND WOULD RATHER MESSAGE THE ICE THREAT
DIRECTLY WITH THE ICE STORM WARNING RATHER THAN A MORE MUDDLED
MESSAGE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING. WITH THE INCREASED ICE TOTALS
IN NE OH, FELT MORE CONFIDENT IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NE
OH, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS THAT MAY STAVE OFF THE
WARM FRONT LONGER.
ONE NOTE FOR THE ICE AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ACROSS THE REGION,
HAVE GONE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE NBM FOR TEMPERATURES FROM
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS THE NBM IS NOT GOING TO HANDLE TEMPERATURES
APPROPRIATELY, AS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND LONGER
IN THIS SETUP WITH WET-BULBING EXPECTED. HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING THAT TEMPERATURES IN NW PA MAY ACTUALLY STAY
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM PERIOD AND WOULD ALLOW
FOR ICY CONDITIONS TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT THE
OFFICIAL ICE FORECAST WILL BIAS HIGHER THAN THE 50TH PERCENTILE FROM
THE NBM AND SOME OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REGION WILL GO FROM THE 30S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH, SO IT WILL BE QUITE
THE GRADIENT ACROSS JUST THE LOCAL AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE WARMER AIR TO RETAIN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. FOR AREAS
IMPACTED BY THE FREEZING RAIN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH ABOVE FREEZING AND SHOULD HELP THAW OUT SOME
OF THE ICE IN NW PA/NE OH. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-TO-
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND RAIN WILL ENTER ON SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SURGE INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD
EVEN BE A CHANCE AT SOME LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH, DEPENDING ON THE
FINAL LOW TRACK AND HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE WITH
THE RAIN ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF 2025, THE PATTERN WILL RETURN TO
A MORE TRADITIONAL LATE DECEMBER PATTERN WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BACK
TOWARD NORMAL, IF NOT BACK COLDER INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS AND TEENS
FOR LOWS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF SNOW
TO THE LOCAL AREA. MONDAY WOULD FEATURE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
EVERYWHERE WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO NE OH/NW PA. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
WHAT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NE OH/NW PA. IF 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CAN GET FAIRLY COLD INTO THE -14 TO -16C RANGE AND IF THE FETCH CAN
FAVOR OH/PA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW, THEN SOME MEANINGFUL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME HIGHER POPS
FOR NE OH/NW PA FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HAVE LESS CERTAINTY ON THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE AND DAY, AS THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A COLDER SHOT OF AIR FROM THE NORTH OR FOR THAT TO MISS THE AREA
TO THE EAST AND TEMPERATURES WOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO RAMP DOWN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR IS OBSERVED AREAWIDE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, BRINGING A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BRIEF, PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE - THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS TRENDED LOWER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WHERE FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, IT SHOULDN'T LAST NO MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. A MESSIER MIX OF
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SLEET AND SNOW, MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
KERI, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST
THERE IS VERY HIGH RIGHT NOW, THOUGH THE DURATION OF A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THIS IS BECOME TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER BECAUSE A
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST WIND THERE.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY IFR
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THE ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHEN
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 200-400 FT MAY BE POSSIBLE. TAFS WERE
SIMPLIFIED TO HAVE 2 SM MUCH MUCH OF THE EVENT, THOUGH THEY WILL
TEND TO BE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MODELS ARE
SHOWING POCKETS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE 1 TO 1/4 SM
RANGE AT TIMES (THOUGH THIS IS NOT IN THE TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE).
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT'S UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT HOW
QUICKLY CEILINGS IMPROVE. LOW CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY
TO STICK AROUND, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE IN NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE
DETERIORATING AGAIN.
EAST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, BEFORE BECOMING MORE PERSISTENTLY NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. NON-VFR
IS LIKELY TO RETURN ON SUNDAY IN WIDESPREAD RAIN, TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LOW CEILINGS MAY
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH
VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS AND GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST FLOW. ONE
PERIOD THAT MAY NEED MONITORING IS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN
EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FAVOR A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE, ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA,
USHERING IN WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN HIGHER WINDS OF NEAR 40 KNOTS IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE
ON MONDAY. A GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF FORECAST ITERATIONS IF TRENDS PERSIST. IN ADDITION, WATER
LEVELS MAY ALSO DROP BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION
ON MONDAY GIVEN THE ELEVATED WESTERLY FLOW.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
OHZ013-014-022-023-033.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ001.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS/SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...KAHN
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