590
FXUS61 KCLE 260806
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
306 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF INTO NORTHEASTERN CANADA TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. ON SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF INTO NORTHEASTERN CANADA WHILE A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS LOW WILL ENTER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTING OVER THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WITH THE
SURFACE, AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, STILL WITH TEMPERATURES LESS
THAN 30 DEGREES, THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION REMAINS A
CONCERN FOR NORTHWESTERN OHIO, NORTHEASTERN OHIO, AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES WITHIN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO
WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE TO TRANSITION ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. FOR
NORTHWESTERN OHIO TO INCLUDE TOLEDO, THEY REMAIN UNDER A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TODAY WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICK TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AS FOR NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THE MAJORITY
OF THE COUNTIES REMAIN IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICE
ACCUMULATION WITH ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA UNDER
AN ICE STORM WARNING. THE FORECAST HAS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS, THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE THAT THE SURFACE
LOW AS TRENDED A TOUCH FURTHER NORTH AND HAS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WITH
THESE CHANGES, IT BRINGS IN SOME COMPLICATIONS IN ICE ACCUMULATION
FOR THOSE AREAS. IF THE LOW CONTINUES WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK,
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO REACH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
REGION AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN QUICKER. THOUGH, KEPT A SIMILAR TRAIN
OF THOUGHT AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DOWN WITH WET-BULBING EXPECTED. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM,
ANY DRY POCKETS WITHIN THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE QUICKER AND RESULT
IN MORE PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. THOUGH, WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND THOSE FACTORS IN MIND, NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A TENTH TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE ACCUMULATION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR ANY OF THE AREAS IN BETWEEN THE ADVISORIES, THERE MAY BE POCKETS
OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING TO MID-MORNING HOURS.
THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. ALSO, CAN'T RULE
OUT A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IN NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO AS
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND
THE LOW, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY AND ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT IS FALLING WILL END BY MIDNIGHT FOR COUNTIES OUT
EAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND INTO THE LOW 40S FURTHER
SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL
DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN THEN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR WARMEST EARLY MONDAY AND FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
DROPPING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -14C BY MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THIS COLD AIR ADVECTING IN TO THE REGION, IT WILL SET UP A
ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS. DEPENDING ON
HOW THE FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS FLOW FAVORS A POTENTIAL LAKE HURON
CONNECTION. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD ON MONDAY THAT WIND GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH OF
OHIO. AS MENTIONED FOR MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR WARMEST
EARLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AND
COOL THROUGHOUT THE DAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S BY
MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PATTERN TO START THE LONG TERM FAVORS CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS LATE ON TUESDAY AS FLOW
SHIFTS, THOUGH WILL SHIFT BACK AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AFTERWARDS, THE
FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW CONTINUING. A FEW LONG RANGE MODELS DO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE
EXPERIENCED THE FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER, AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE TRENDING TO BE BELOW AVERAGE TO START
THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR IS OBSERVED AREAWIDE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, BRINGING A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BRIEF, PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE - THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS TRENDED LOWER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WHERE FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, IT SHOULDN'T LAST NO MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. A MESSIER MIX OF
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SLEET AND SNOW, MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
KERI, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST
THERE IS VERY HIGH RIGHT NOW, THOUGH THE DURATION OF A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED TO MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THIS IS BECOME TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER BECAUSE A
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST WIND THERE.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY IFR
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THE ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHEN
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 200-400 FT MAY BE POSSIBLE. TAFS WERE
SIMPLIFIED TO HAVE 2 SM MUCH MUCH OF THE EVENT, THOUGH THEY WILL
TEND TO BE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MODELS ARE
SHOWING POCKETS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE 1 TO 1/4 SM
RANGE AT TIMES (THOUGH THIS IS NOT IN THE TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE).
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT'S UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT HOW
QUICKLY CEILINGS IMPROVE. LOW CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY
TO STICK AROUND, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE IN NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE
DETERIORATING AGAIN.
EAST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, BEFORE BECOMING MORE PERSISTENTLY NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. NON-VFR
IS LIKELY TO RETURN ON SUNDAY IN WIDESPREAD RAIN, TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LOW CEILINGS MAY
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE GLIDES SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING LOW EASE TO 10-12 KNOTS WHILE
BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TONIGHT. A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES ON SATURDAY LEADING TO GENERALLY
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LEADING TO A WINDOW OF
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35 KNOTS ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 40 KNOTS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE
FORECAST IN THE EVENT THAT GALES ARE NEEDED. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ003-
006>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ013-014-022-023-033.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ001.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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