929
FXUS61 KCLE 261919
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
219 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THIS EVENING
WHERE AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. AN ADDITIONAL
0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF ICE REMAIN POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN HALVES OF ERIE AND CRAWFORD (PA). CONDITIONS MAY
GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF BLACK ICE.
OTHERWISE, ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
REMAINS RATHER GLOOM, ALBEIT MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR
STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ON MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN FROM 1000 MB TO NEAR
975MB AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY ON SUNDAY
TO THE VICINITY OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BEHIND THE FRONT. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES
(>70%) FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA CLOSEST TO
THE LAKESHORE IS FAVORED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOW PROBABILITIES (10 TO 30%) OF
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
DRY 700 MB AIR IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY BRING DOWN SEVERE-LEVEL WIND GUSTS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, EVIDENT VIA THE SPC SWODY3 MARGINAL
RISK AND GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MICHIGAN, WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEADLINES ARE
APPEARING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SNOWBELT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW PROBABILITIES INCREASING. IN
ADDITION, MIXING HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4KFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY RESULT IN SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WITH
WIND HEADLINES BECOMING MORE LIKELY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 55 TO 60 MPH MPH IF MIXING
HEIGHTS CAN REACH CLOSER TO 5KFT WHERE A 50 TO 55 KNOT LLJ
RESIDES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW (BOTH LAKE EFFECT AND
CLIPPER) ARE FAVORED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE ALIGNED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO BRING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BAND OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA
THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR THE LAST BITS OF VFR TO FALL INTO
THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE WITH PRECIPITATION AT KERI AND KYNG.
THERE WILL STILL BE A WINDOW OF AN HOUR OR TWO WHERE FZRA
REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN
BY 20Z. ELSEWHERE, BEHIND THE MAIN BANDS OF PRECIPITATION,
CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING TO LIFR WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS
FILLING IN AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE THEIR WORST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. THERE WILL SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW BUT SUSPECT THAT A MIX OF IFR/LIFR WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO SATURDAY. SOME IFR MAY DISSIPATE IN
NW OH BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT ANY IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE
TO JUST MVFR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE WITH THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FAVORED
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW.
SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TARGET THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NON-VFR WILL BE EXPECTED WITH RAIN AND
POTENTIALLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ON SUNDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS
TO SNOW WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. NON-VFR EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS FOR NE
OH AND NW PA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE GLIDES SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING LOW EASE TO 10-12 KNOTS WHILE
BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TONIGHT. A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES ON SATURDAY LEADING TO GENERALLY
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LEADING TO A WINDOW OF
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35 KNOTS ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING 40 KNOTS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE
FORECAST IN THE EVENT THAT GALES ARE NEEDED. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ013-014-022-023-033.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ001.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...13
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