087
FXUS61 KCLE 270208
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
908 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
9:00 PM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO CANCEL ALL HEADLINES. PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE
REGION AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EAST THROUGH PA AND NY. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE FALLING AS THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEEPENS. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH IS PATCHY
DRIZZLE SINCE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY SATURATED THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. THIS WILL SET UP A
STRONG INVERSION WITH LOW CLOUDS, MIST, AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
BENEATH IT WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPS
FALL LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THIS EVENING
WHERE AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. AN ADDITIONAL
0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF ICE REMAIN POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN HALVES OF ERIE AND CRAWFORD (PA). CONDITIONS MAY
GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF BLACK ICE.
OTHERWISE, ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
REMAINS RATHER GLOOM, ALBEIT MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AN ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR
STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ON MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN FROM 1000 MB TO NEAR
975MB AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY ON SUNDAY
TO THE VICINITY OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BEHIND THE FRONT. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES
(>70%) FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA CLOSEST TO
THE LAKESHORE IS FAVORED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOW PROBABILITIES (10 TO 30%) OF
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND
DRY 700 MB AIR IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY BRING DOWN SEVERE-LEVEL WIND GUSTS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, EVIDENT VIA THE SPC SWODY3 MARGINAL
RISK AND GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MICHIGAN, WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEADLINES ARE
APPEARING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SNOWBELT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW PROBABILITIES INCREASING. IN
ADDITION, MIXING HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4KFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY RESULT IN SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WITH
WIND HEADLINES BECOMING MORE LIKELY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 55 TO 60 MPH MPH IF MIXING
HEIGHTS CAN REACH CLOSER TO 5KFT WHERE A 50 TO 55 KNOT LLJ
RESIDES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW (BOTH LAKE EFFECT AND
CLIPPER) ARE FAVORED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE ALIGNED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO BRING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN IS EXITING THE REGION, WITH JUST A FEW VICINITY SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND KCAK AND KYNG OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY SATURATED, AND
THIS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MIST AND IFR/LIFR CIGS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT BEFORE THE
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS A CHANCE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY, AND THIS
WILL SET UP PERSISTENT IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR TO LIFR
CIGS, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN FOG AT KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG, BUT IT COULD OCCUR
ANYWHERE, SO HAVE ALL SITES STAYING IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, SO CONTINUED
TO DRAG OUT THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR.
NW WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS
TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING NE, AND THE NE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TARGET THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NON-VFR WILL BE EXPECTED WITH RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER ON SUNDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. NON-VFR EXPECTED
IN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS FOR NE OH AND NW PA FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. FOR THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE, WINDS ARE NORTHERLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE, WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURN ONSHORE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 TO
15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND NO MARINE HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH FOR
SATURDAY AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO START BEFORE
BECOMING OFFSHORE AGAIN AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST. FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TARGET THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BRINGING STRONG WINDS. WITH THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH OVER 20
KTS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENS AND PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE ON
MONDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO 40+ KTS AS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE.
THERE WILL BE THE NEED FOR AT LEAST GALE HEADLINES ON THE LAKE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR STORM
FORCE WIND HEADLINES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TIME
PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE HEADLINE ISSUANCE. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO POSE A LOW WATER THREAT FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.
BOTH OF THESE ARE CONTINUED TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND, THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE PATH OF SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS AND SNOW. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODIC NEEDS FOR HEADLINES ON THE LAKE AND THERE
WILL NEED TO BE SOME WATCHING OF ICE GROWTH FOR THE WESTERN
BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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