377
FXUS61 KCLE 271722
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1222 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND MOVE EAST DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
ON MONDAY. TROUGHING WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN LAKE
ERIE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AS AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THESE FEATURES WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED. TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S WITH SOME AREAS HITTING 40 WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ACCOMPANY
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. EARLY SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WITH IT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. REFER TO THE
SHORT TERM SECTION FOR IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MAJORITY OF
THEM WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME LOW 60S MAKING AN APPEARANCE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY DOWN TO
NEAR 975MB BY MONDAY MORNING AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF IMPACTS TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.
TO START, THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
INTO PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SOME MODELS, MAINLY THE CANADIAN, HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INCREASED TOTAL QPF ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS OF WELL OVER 2 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN AROUND
1-1.5 INCHES OF TOTAL QPF. NBM PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
1.5 INCHES HAVE DROPPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, THOUGH ARE
STILL SITTING AROUND 40-50% FOR THE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE FROM
CLEVELAND UP THROUGH ERIE, PA. A FEATURE WORKING IN FAVOR OF LOWER
QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRSTLY, AFTER THE
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH, THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO STAY NORTH OVER LAKE ERIE. CAN'T RULE OUT IT LINGERING A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AROUND THE LAKE SHORE, HENCE THE PROBABILITIES
MENTIONED ABOVE, BUT THE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING AND THE LARGE BULK OF PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, WPC HAS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
LAKE SHORE WITHIN A MARGINAL ERO AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS IT
DEVELOPS.
THE SECOND IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND 50-60 KNOTS AT AND
AROUND 5K FEET. MIXING LEVELS WILL BE JUST BELOW THAT LEVEL
THOUGH AND COULD MIX GUSTS OF 40-45MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
CURRENTLY, PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45MPH ARE AROUND
30-50% FOR WESTERN OHIO AND ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND 20-30% FOR
GUSTS OVER 50MPH. POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS IS INCREASING AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED, BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY EVENING.
LASTLY FOR IMPACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS HAVE SHOWN A FAIRLY THIN QLCS FEATURE FORMING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A MINOR INSTABILITY WITH THE WARMING FROM THE
PASSING WARM FRONT EARLIER ON SUNDAY THAT WILL GENERATE MUCAPE
AROUND 100-300 J/KG. AS MENTIONED, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING DOWN SEVERE LEVEL GUSTS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE MINOR INSTABILITY AND IS ALSO NOTED IN THE SPC DAY 2
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH MUCH OF THE REGION BEING LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL RISK.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF -14C TO -16C MOVE IN TO THE REGION. THE HIGH FOR
MONDAY SHOULD BE AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AROUND THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND FALL TO THE MID 20S BY THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH
THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR, THE RAIN WILL BEING TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BE ALL SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOWBELTS WILL HAVE ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH, THOUGH COULD BE
HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS AS A CONNECTION TO LAKE MICHIGAN MAY FORM AND
IMPACT SOME WESTERN COUNTIES. WITHIN THE SNOWBELT, CONSISTENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AND
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIODS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN HEADLINE LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS
WITH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON.
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO START TUESDAY WILL BE DOWN IN THE HIGH
TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY BEING
NOT MUCH WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF OFF AN ON LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-WEEK THAT
WILL REINFORCE THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE. IN ADDITIONS, THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE REGION, SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR IT FOR CHANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STAY
COLD DUE TO THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DIMINISHED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES
THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, LINGERING LOW STRATUS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF
CEILINGS BETWEEN 500FT TO 1500FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THOSE HEIGHTS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, SPREADING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1KFT
AND VISIBILITIES TO RANGE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE
AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. NO VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS OF 3-7 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GAINING A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A WARM
FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT, THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 5-10
KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS. WITHIN THE TRANSITION FROM CALM TO GUSTY WINDS, THERE
IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR LLWS, BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
PLACEMENT, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE WITH ANY TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THESE DIMINISHED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
ALONG AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
EXIT TO THE EAST TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY EASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE TURNING
EASTERLY THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS IN
THE MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS AND TURN SOUTHERLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW
WILL GLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A
PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE AS IT DEEPENS EARLY MONDAY. WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TO 35-40+ KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
EAST OF THE ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE WINDS ON LAKE ERIE
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES. THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR LOW WATER IN THE
WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30-35+ KNOTS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE PASSING LOW.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR OHZ010>014-020-021-089.
PA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
LEZ142>149-162>169.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...04
MARINE...13
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