854
FXUS61 KCLE 272025
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
325 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO AT LEAST
MID- WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS PACKAGE IS THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND NORTHWEST OHIO, AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT USHERS IN WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE DECREASING
ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH THE AXIS TRENDING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND INTO MICHIGAN.
AN ACTIVE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, RAPIDLY
DEEPENING FROM 1000 MB TO NEAR 975MB AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM
THE MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE VICINITY OF LAKE HURON BY MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
MORNING, INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1.0 INCH IS
DECREASING, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES BECOMING CONFINED
FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE TOLEDO METRO WILL
BE CLOSE TO THIS GRADIENT AND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ELSEWHERE, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW WITH THE LINE,
THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE STRONG WIND FIELD
AND DRY 700 MB AIR IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY BRING DOWN SEVERE-LEVEL WIND GUSTS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, EVIDENT VIA THE SPC SWODY2 MARGINAL
RISK AND GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
THE HIGHER END OF GUSTS MOST LIKELY FOUND IN THE HIGH WIND WATCH
AREA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY, RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT. HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST ITERATIONS GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
BLOWING SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT, TRAVEL MAY ALSO BE DIFFICULT
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR SQUALLS WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITES AND COAT ROADWAYS WITH SNOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT ON TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVORS A MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
WIND CHILLS HOVERING IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW (BOTH LAKE EFFECT AND
CLIPPER) ARE FAVORED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
20S, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE ALIGNED
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING A WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE INTO
NEW YEAR'S DAY WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST BY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DIMINISHED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES
THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, LINGERING LOW STRATUS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF
CEILINGS BETWEEN 500FT TO 1500FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THOSE HEIGHTS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
WHEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, SPREADING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1KFT
AND VISIBILITIES TO RANGE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE
AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. NO VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS OF 3-7 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GAINING A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A WARM
FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT, THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 5-10
KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS. WITHIN THE TRANSITION FROM CALM TO GUSTY WINDS, THERE
IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR LLWS, BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
PLACEMENT, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE WITH ANY TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THESE DIMINISHED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
ALONG AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP MARINE
CONDITIONS CALM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY MORNING, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE
ERIE, RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL MARK A TRANSITION TO HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY THIS WEEK.
AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION, INCREASED GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA COUPLED WITH A STRONG CAA REGIME WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF LAKE ERIE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THESE GALES WILL APPROACH STORM FORCE WINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP
TO 47 KNOTS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45-55 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 12-
17 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS. WAVES WILL ALSO BUILD
TO 3-6 FEET ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN, BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW THE CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECAST HAS LAKE LEVELS FALLING TO 4
FEET BELOW LOW WATER DATUM, WHICH IS WHERE THE MODEL BOTTOMS OUT.
THIS WILL POSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ALONG SHIPPING ROUTES AND
MARINERS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY. TO HIGHLIGHT THESE CONCERNS, THERE
IS CURRENTLY A GALE WATCH IN EFFECT. A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED, BUT OPTED TO ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO ISSUE THIS TO GET HI-RES
GUIDANCE INTO THE FORECAST.
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST AND WINDS BACK BEHIND THE LOW ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BUT REMAIN
SUSTAINED AT GALES OF 35-40 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PARENT LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA, A LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL KEEP ELEVATED WINDS OF
20-30 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WHICH WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE TALE END OF THE GALE. OVERALL, STRONGLY RECOMMEND
REFRAINING FROM TRAVELS ON LAKE ERIE, ESPECIALLY IN SMALL
CRAFTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR OHZ010>014-020-021-089.
PA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
LEZ142>144-162>164.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149-165>169.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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