758
FXUS61 KCLE 281138
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
638 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND MOVE EAST DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
ON MONDAY. TROUGHING WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN LAKE
ERIE THROUGH MID-WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
PLENTY OF CHANGES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCLUDE AN UPGRADE TO THE
HIGH WIND WATCH AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WATCH
(WILL DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). STARTING WITH THE UPGRADE
WINDS, THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE 35-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
TWO TIERS OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA AS WINDS WILL BE 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TODAY THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, STRENGTHENING AS
IT DOES AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND
975MB. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE CAA ADVECTION BEING USHERED IN BEHIND
IT. THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND GIVEN THE MIXING LEVELS BEING
AROUND 5KFT, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH TO MIX DOWN WITH
THE HIGHER END GUSTS BEING WITHIN THE WARNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH WILL STILL
STAY ELEVATED AT AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. AREAS ALONG
THE EASTERN LAKE SHORE FROM CUYAHOGA EASTWARD MAY STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF THE
LAKE.
THE SECONDARY THREAT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAIN AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE RAIN, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOTAL
QPF DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS ACROSS THE CWA AS THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO MICHIGAN AND CANADA. HREF
PROBABILITIES HAVE LOW PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 20% FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH
HIGHER TOTALS NEAR NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THOSE
AREAS WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITOR FOR ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR.
THE DOWNWARD TREND OF RAINFALL CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A LARGE DRY SLOT
MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVING MINIMAL PRECIPITATION DURING. THERE
IS ALSO A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW (100-150 J/KG MUCAPE),
THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. GIVEN THIS, THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THERE WILL BE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH THE PASSING WARM FRONT
AND HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGHS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS AT MOST CLIMATE SITES TODAY.
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL BE JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND FALL TO THE MID 20S BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO -14C TO -16C ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS, WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS POINT FOR THIS WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS THEY
WILL BE NEAR A POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONNECTION AND HAVE BEEN PLACED
IN A WINTER STORM WATCH AS A RESULT. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 6-12
INCHES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND UP TO 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS
WITH ELSEWHERE EXPECTING LESS. WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE A POSSIBILITY THAT
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITES AND CAUSE COMMUTES TO BECOME HAZARDOUS.
TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN UNTIL A SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THAT WILL REINVIGORATE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO WANE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN FAIRLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE MID 20S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD REACH SINGLE DIGITS EACH NIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE IN THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
COULD REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING AREAWIDE RAIN SHOWERS AND CONTINUED IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND THEREFORE LOWER CIGS/VIS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TO MVFR. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT FOR ANY REDUCED CIGS/VIS TO LIFT TO MVFR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 8-12 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 12-18 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE
MAY A BRIEF WINDOW OF LLWS IF WINDS ARE SLOWER TO GUST AT THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINED TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS
RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. WIND GUSTS 30 TO 50 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. NON-VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA IN
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY TODAY WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRONG CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE
TO STORM FORCE BY MONDAY MORNING. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS HAVE NOW
BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. GIVEN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WATER LEVELS IN
THE WESTERN BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 4 FEET BELOW LOW WATER
DATUM, WHERE THE WATER LEVEL MODEL BOTTOMS OUT. A LOW WATER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, BUT WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO ISSUE THIS TO
BETTER NAIL DOWN TIMING OF GREATEST IMPACTS.
STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS DECREASE TO
GALE FORCE MONDAY EVENING WHERE SUBSEQUENT GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
LAKE ERIE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ003-
006>009-017>019.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ010>014-089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ020>023-030>033-038.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ027>029-036-
037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ001-002.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ003.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LEZ142>144-162>164.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ145>147-
165>167.
STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ145>147-
165>167.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ148-149-168-
169.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ148-149-168-
169.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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