759
FXUS61 KCLE 281719
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1219 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND MOVE EAST DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
ON MONDAY. TROUGHING WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN LAKE
ERIE THROUGH MID-WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
PLENTY OF CHANGES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCLUDE AN UPGRADE TO THE
HIGH WIND WATCH AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WATCH
(WILL DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). STARTING WITH THE UPGRADE
WINDS, THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE 35-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
TWO TIERS OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA AS WINDS WILL BE 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TODAY THAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, STRENGTHENING AS
IT DOES AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND
975MB. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THE CAA ADVECTION BEING USHERED IN BEHIND
IT. THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND GIVEN THE MIXING LEVELS BEING
AROUND 5KFT, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH TO MIX DOWN WITH
THE HIGHER END GUSTS BEING WITHIN THE WARNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH WILL STILL
STAY ELEVATED AT AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. AREAS ALONG
THE EASTERN LAKE SHORE FROM CUYAHOGA EASTWARD MAY STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OFF THE
LAKE.
THE SECONDARY THREAT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAIN AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE RAIN, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOTAL
QPF DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS ACROSS THE CWA AS THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH INTO MICHIGAN AND CANADA. HREF
PROBABILITIES HAVE LOW PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 20% FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH
HIGHER TOTALS NEAR NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THOSE
AREAS WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITOR FOR ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR.
THE DOWNWARD TREND OF RAINFALL CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A LARGE DRY SLOT
MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVING MINIMAL PRECIPITATION DURING. THERE
IS ALSO A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW (100-150 J/KG MUCAPE),
THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. GIVEN THIS, THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THERE WILL BE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH THE PASSING WARM FRONT
AND HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGHS WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS AT MOST CLIMATE SITES TODAY.
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL BE JUST
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND FALL TO THE MID 20S BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO -14C TO -16C ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS, WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS POINT FOR THIS WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS THEY
WILL BE NEAR A POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONNECTION AND HAVE BEEN PLACED
IN A WINTER STORM WATCH AS A RESULT. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 6-12
INCHES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND UP TO 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SNOWBELTS
WITH ELSEWHERE EXPECTING LESS. WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE A POSSIBILITY THAT
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITES AND CAUSE COMMUTES TO BECOME HAZARDOUS.
TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN UNTIL A SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THAT WILL REINVIGORATE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO WANE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN FAIRLY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE MID 20S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD REACH SINGLE DIGITS EACH NIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE IN THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
COULD REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE WARM AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH, AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 BEING REPORTED. AS A RESULT, THE BULK
OF TERMINALS ARE EXPERIENCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.
DIMINISHED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS, BUT AS THE FRONT
DEPARTS TO THE EAST, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
REBOUND TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. ON MONDAY MORNING, THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA, USHERING IN SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
PRIMARILY LIGHT OTHER THAN IN SOME HEAVIER BANDS THAT MAY
DEVELOP. THE ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE BLSN AT TERMINALS
REDUCING CONDITIONS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-12 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS
WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE SUSTAINED
AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES AND WINDS BACK TO BE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VERY STRONG GUSTS
AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS
RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. NON-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA IN LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
MARINE
MORNING UPDATE...
A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN
BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
15-25 KNOTS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN
STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE TO STORM FORCE BY MONDAY MORNING.
GALE AND STORM WARNINGS HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE ENTIRETY
OF LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WATER LEVELS IN THE WESTERN BASIN
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 4 FEET BELOW LOW WATER DATUM, WHERE THE
WATER LEVEL MODEL BOTTOMS OUT. A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED, BUT WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO ISSUE THIS TO BETTER
NAIL DOWN TIMING OF GREATEST IMPACTS.
STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS DECREASE TO
GALE FORCE MONDAY EVENING WHERE SUBSEQUENT GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS
LAKE ERIE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ003-
006>009-017>019.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ010>014-089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ020>023-030>033-038.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ027>029-036-
037-047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ001-002.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ003.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LEZ142>144-162>164.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LEZ142>144-162>164.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ145>147-
165>167.
STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ145>147-
165>167.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ148-149-168-
169.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ148-149-168-
169.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04/13
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