263
FXUS61 KCLE 290507
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1207 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT, EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO AT LEAST
MID- WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, EXTENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND THE UPGRADE TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING FOR SNOW SQUALLS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPIDLY-DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS IL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT (30 TO 40F IN SOME SPOTS)
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. UPSTREAM AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ALREADY SEEING SEVERAL SNOW
SQUALL WARNINGS AND ROAD IMPACTS WHICH IS PERHAPS A PREVIEW OF
WHAT'S TO COME ACROSS OUR AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THIS EVENING, STILL MONITORING A LOW-CONFIDENCE SEVERE WIND
THREAT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
GENERALLY KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED AND LIMITED.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH RAIN QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY MID-MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
FROM THE LOW 60S TO THE MID-20S. LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN WITH MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REACH SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
850 AND 925 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO REACH
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHER END OF
GUSTS FOUND IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA.
A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF IMPACTFUL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LAKE ENHANCED PROCESSES WILL FULLY TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
AROUND -15 TO -16C WITH FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
IN PLACE. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE A
LAKE EFFECT WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 10 INCHES. WHITEOUTS AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA, ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING WHEN
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTING BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH. FOR THE
ADVISORY AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN INLAND
ASHTABULA AND GEAUGA COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST
TRENDS TO SEE IF ANY WARNING UPGRADES ARE NEEDED FOR THOSE
AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT CURRENT
ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AN ADDITIONAL TIER OF
COUNTIES TO COVER THE COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW.
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SNOW
SQUALLS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
SURFACE TROUGH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SQUALLS WHICH COULD CAUSE BRIEF
WHITEOUTS AND QUICKLY COAT ROADWAYS WITH SNOW. BE SURE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND HEED ANY WARNINGS IF TRAVELING
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW FAVORED TO
RESIDE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO WESTERN NY. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEW YEAR'S
EVE. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST AN INCH.
WIND CHILLS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SOMEWHAT QUIETER, ALBEIT COLD, PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS SEVERAL AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY COLD AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR-ZERO.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DESPITE THE RAIN, THERE IS MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AS OF
05Z. HOWEVER, THE LOWER CEILINGS AND STRONG WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 30 KTS ARE JUST ON THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER AND WILL
PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
CURRENT RAIN WITH SOME VFR/MVFR BUT WILL TRANSITION TO THE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY IFR BUT SUSPECT THAT IT WILL
BE INTERMITTENT AND NOT PRACTICAL TO PUT INTO A TAF RIGHT NOW.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A PUSH OF HIGHER
WINDS ALONG WITH SNOW THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME IFR WITH THE SNOW, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
POCKETS OF LIFR, ESPECIALLY IF ORGANIZED SQUALLS CAN DEVELOP,
PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE. SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN NE
OH/NW PA IN THE SNOW BELT AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME LIFR AROUND KERI. ELSEWHERE, SNOW WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
PERHAPS VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. NON-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MIDWEST HAS MOVED NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING FOR A SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT, A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY
RAMP UP TO 25-35 KNOT GALES BEFORE BACKING AND INCREASING TO 40-50
KNOT STORMS BY MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ERIE, WHICH WILL THEN BE UPGRADED TO A STORM
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS MONDAY MORNING. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE
NEARSHORE WITH WAVES 13 TO 17 FEET IN THE OPEN WATERS. IN THE
EASTERN BASIN, WHICH WILL LIE AT THE END OF A LONG FETCH, HIGHEST
WAVES MAY REACH IN EXCESS OF 25 FEET. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH WAVES, THE SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WATER LEVELS FALLING BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. THE CURRENT WATER LEVEL FORECAST BOTTOMS
OUT AT 4 FEET BELOW LOW WATER DATUM, HOWEVER COULD SEE WATER LEVELS
FALL AS LOW AS 6 FEET BELOW LOW WATER DATUM. ON THE BACK END OF THIS
LOW PRESSURE, STRONG GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL NEED ADDITIONAL MARINE
HEADLINES, BUT THE STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO EXPIRE
MONDAY EVENING.
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH WINDS OF AT LEAST 20-25 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY 4-6
FEET. THE NEXT PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
BE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THAT IS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ003-006>009-
017>019.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ010>014-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR OHZ011>014-021>023-089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ020>023-030>033-038.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ027>029-036-037-
047.
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ001-002.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ001.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
162>164.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ145>147-165>167.
STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ145>147-
165>167.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ148-149-168-
169.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ148-149-168-
169.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...04
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