193
FXUS61 KCLE 121115
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITH POTENTIAL
TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING COLDER THIS WEEKEND WITH SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS AND OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.
2) RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS TO THE EVENING COMMUTE. HAZARDOUS
WINTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATION.
3) WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER WITH MORE
SNOW POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION, A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER FOR TUESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE
40S. IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME AMOUNT OF A 40 TO
50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL, IMPACTS FROM THE WIND SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LIMITS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WILL BE A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WILL ENTER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, STARTING TUESDAY EVENING. THE INITIAL WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW FOR AN ABRUPT
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW, LIKELY IN TIME FOR THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING COMMUTE. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUDDEN CHANGE TO SNOW
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HALF INCH TO ONE INCH SNOWFALL RATES,
TEMPERATURES PLUNGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 20S, AND
SURFACE/PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES LIKELY STARTING ABOVE FREEZING
TO QUICKLY FALLING BELOW FREEZING COULD ALLOW FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLOW AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING
FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND WILL BEAR SOME
WATCHING, AS ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC FOR
A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW, THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE WHOLE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE NEED FOR AT LEAST A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INCREASING WITH EVERY FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTION ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
ENTER FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE SUPPORT OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL ORIGINATE OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND CARRY
SOUTH SOME ARCTIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE TIMING
OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH
PERIODS OF SNOW THAT WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ON SUNDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE
REGION RIGHT NOW BUT AT LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
EVERYWHERE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NE OH/NW PA. THE BIGGER STORY
AND THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BARELY TOUCH THE 20 DEGREE MARK AND LOW TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHTS. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY AND
BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. EARLY TRENDS IN THE FORECAST ARE CLOSER
TOWARD COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A MIX BAG OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
ALL VFR THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CALMING TO 5-11 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS RAIN
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN SNOW
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AS AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. TODAY,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY NUDGE
NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS COUPLE WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED GRADIENT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-
30 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UP WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN BASIN WITH SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS, THE ENTIRE
LAKESHORE HAS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
EASTERN BASIN BEING UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING BEGINNING AT 7AM
LOCAL TIME. WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER 7PM TONIGHT TO BE SOME
THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS.
THESE CALMER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ROBUST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20-
30 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF LULL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THEN, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BACK BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO BE
SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 20-30 KNOTS. THIS PERIOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE LARGER WAVES TO DEVELOP WITH WAVES
UP TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES. BY FRIDAY, WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROBUST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ149.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149-169.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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