099
FXUS61 KCLE 122026
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
326 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL IS TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A FASTER TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE ALSO
TRENDING COLDER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MILD AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A QUICK SHOT
OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NE
OHIO AND NW PA.
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
WHILE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
4) EVEN COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RATHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY AND LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SW
WINDS DEVELOPING. DECENT MIXING INTO A 45-50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET
AS TEMPERATURES WARM WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NW OHIO AND NEAR DOWNSLOPE FAVORED
AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORE. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM,
THAT WILL NOT BE VERY IMPACTFUL SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF
MOISTURE. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH A FRONTOGENESIS BAND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK SQUEEZES OUT A
BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE BULK OF
THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z AND 03Z TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN NE OHIO AND NW PA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST MILD DAY FOR QUITE
SOME TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE BIG SYSTEM OF THE WEEK WILL ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL
SIGNAL A RETURN TO WINTER, WITH IMPACTS LINGERING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WEDNESDAY, A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PLOW
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE DIGGING
LONGWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A STRONG POOL OF TRAILING ARCTIC
AIR TRIGGERS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT.
THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY TO A STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW. AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD IN BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS
RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST, STARTING IN NW
OHIO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE CHANGEOVER REACHING THE OH/PA
BORDER BY 21Z. THIS HAS TRENDED SEVERAL HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST GUIDANCE, SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
WIDESPREAD, ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER
CHANGEOVER, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED.
THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH DEEP WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE AND STRONG MID-LEVEL VORTICITY. THIS COMBINED WITH LAKE
ENHANCEMENT FROM A NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
850 MB TEMPS CRASHING TO -19 TO -21 C WILL BOOST SNOWFALL. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE, WITH
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS LINGERING FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS
THE STEADIEST SNOW WINDS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BESIDES THE
FALLING SNOW, NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WILL ALSO
LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD AT
LEAST AVERAGE 1-3 INCHES AREAWIDE, WITH 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NE OHIO THROUGH NW PA.
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS FROM MID THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW AS THE NW FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
THIS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE-EFFECT, BUT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS
OF THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELTS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GRADUALLY END THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER IMPACT WITH THIS MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR. MORNING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
WEDNESDAY WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING COLDER
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THIS WILL
SUPPORT WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 0 AND -5 WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND SUBZERO AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
AND LIKELY BEYOND, AS THE MID/UPPER AIR PATTERN STRONGLY
AMPLIFIES OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRONG
MID/UPPER RIDGE IN THE NE PACIFIC AND ALASKA, WITH A DOWNSTREAM
DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS IS A CLASSIC PATTERN FOR CROSS POLAR FLOW TO SEND A LOT OF
ARCTIC AIR THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE UNITED
STATES, AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER USUALLY OCCURS WITH
SUCH PATTERNS. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS LIKELY AGAIN.
SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BOUTS OF AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH NW
PA AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR, BUT WINDS THE PRIMARY ISSUE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20-30KTS, BUT WILL EASE AT SOME TERMINALS BELOW
10KTS TONIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. AS THOSE GUSTS
SUBSIDE FOR SEVERAL HOURS, ADDED LLWS IN TO THOSE TERMINALS
DURING THAT STRETCH OF TIME. GUSTS RESUME TO 25KTS TUESDAY.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO FL100-120 TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS
RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY, MOST NUMEROUS
EAST OF A CLEVELAND TO MANSFIELD LINE. NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY AND BRIEFLY TONIGHT DROPPING TO
10-20KTS AND KEEPING THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-6FT WELL EAST OF
THE ISLANDS AND OUT BEYOND THE NEARSHORE WATER ZONES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL DROP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT LIKELY ONLY FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TO 20-30KTS, AND WAVE HEIGHTS 3-5FT AGAIN
EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
BRINGS A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 20-30KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE 4-8FT RANGE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND 3-6FT IN THE EASTERN AND
WESTERN BASINS. WINDS RETURN TO OFFSHORE DIRECTIONS BY FRIDAY AT
AROUND 15-25KTS, KEEPING THE OPEN WATERS AT 3-6FT BUT THE NEARSHORE
ZONES 1-2FT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>144-
162>164.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ144>148.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149-169.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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