486
FXUS61 KCLE 130754
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
254 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE WILL BE A FOCUSED WINDOW OF 0.5-1.5" OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY
MEANINGFUL SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NE OH AND NW PA SNOW BELT
AND THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM INTO NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER
WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS OF BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NE OH AND NW PA.
2) RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL ABRUPTLY TRANSITION TO SNOW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIALLY MESSY WEDNESDAY
EVENING COMMUTE.
3) TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL POSE A MINOR COLD EXPOSURE
RISK. THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
NE OH AND NW PA, AND HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
4) COLDER AIR WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MORE
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND REACH LAKE ERIE. IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 40S.
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PORTION OF THE 40
TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, AND SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY RAIN
WOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR AND OVER LAKE ERIE INTO FAR NE OH AND
NW PA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WAVE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA THIS MORNING TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO A POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL THEN TURN INTO A CLOSED
UPPER LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
FOR RAIN TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW IN RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE STILL CONCERNS ABOUT A MESSY COMMUTE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE SUDDEN CHANGE TO
SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HALF INCH TO ONE INCH SNOWFALL
RATES, TEMPERATURES PLUNGING FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S TO
UPPER 20S, AND SURFACE/PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES LIKELY STARTING
ABOVE FREEZING TO QUICKLY FALLING BELOW FREEZING. THESE FACTORS
COULD ALLOW FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL, THE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE A MODEST 0.5-1.5" ACROSS THE
AREA BUT IT MAY FALL IN AN HOUR OR TWO, WHICH MAY BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION, IT IS NOT HARD TO SEE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS OR SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
CONDITIONS FOR SNOW OUTSIDE THE SNOW BELT WILL BE LIMITED TO
JUST THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING, AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
QUICK TO ENTER THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW SWIRLING OVER THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
COLD, NORTHWEST FLOW TO POUR INTO THE REGION AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SINGLE DIGITS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE
REGION WILL STILL BE ELEVATED WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE TO BE IN THE -5 TO 5 F RANGE, ALLOWING FOR MINOR
COLD EXPOSURE IMPACTS, BUT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, AS -18 TO -20 C 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SETTLE OVER LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GOOD, EVEN WITH THE LAKE IN THE
30S, THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION TO
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. IT MAY TAKE UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND OTHER LAKES TO ALLOW FOR BETTER
SNOW GROWTH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE, WILL HAVE A
FORECAST OF GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE NE OH AND NW PA SNOW
BELT FROM THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LAKE EFFECT ON
THURSDAY. SOME HIGHER TOTALS ARE LIKELY IN NW PA, AS THIS WILL
BE WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION WOULD FAVOR WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE SNOW BELT.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH COLD ORIGINS
OVER NORTHERN CANADA WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ON SATURDAY AND COULD FLARE UP SOME LAKE EFFECT ACROSS ALL
LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE
EVEN COLDER AIR THAT WILL SETTLE IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S STARTING ON SUNDAY AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
NIGHT. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN WITH 10 TO 20 MPH OF FLOW AND
WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT WILL START NEAR ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TREND TO BELOW ZERO FOR THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTES.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THIS COLDER AIR MASS MAY TREND COLDER AND
THAT COULD PROMPT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AT ERI TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH NO VSBY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 22
KNOTS, WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS LIKELY LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MARGINAL LLWS IS
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST 925 MB
WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH OPTED
AGAINST INCLUSION. STRONGER 925 MB SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 KNOTS
WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THOUGH ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS GREATER THAN 15 KNOTS PRECLUDE LLWS MENTION.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS RAIN
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY, MOST NUMEROUS EAST
OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WAVES
ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS, GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
NEARSHORE ZONES. TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BEFORE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT 20-25 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS SHIFT TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO
4-6 FEET, POSSIBLE APPROACHING 8 FEET IN THE CENTRAL BASIN.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF LULL IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT,
HOWEVER GIVEN THE VERY SHORT DURATION OPTED TO HAVE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A MORE
NOTABLE LULL IN WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER POTENT LOW
IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY. BIG TAKEAWAY WITH ALL OF THIS IS THAT
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...04
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