712
FXUS61 KCLE 132107
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
407 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED ACROSS THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELTS OF NE OHIO,
AS WELL AS IN NW PA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR CUYAHOGA, LAKE, GEAUGA, AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES IN OHIO FROM
14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN PA FROM 16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY
CHANGE TO SNOW BY MIDDAY, WITH SNOW CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE A MESSY EVENING COMMUTE.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH BELOW
ZERO WIND CHILLS, POSING A MINOR COLD EXPOSURE RISK.
3) LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF NE OHIO AND
NW PA THURSDAY, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
4) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING EVEN COLDER THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON AND WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE WILL RETURN TO WINTER WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH THE DAY, DRAGGING AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS, SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ON THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
QUICKLY TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY TO A COASTAL LOW BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS, INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING INTO THE
REGION BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND WET BULBING WILL QUICKLY CHANGE THIS RAIN TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE SNOW BY 15Z, WITH THE OH/PA BORDER SEEING SNOW BY 17Z. THIS
WILL SET UP A MESSY EVENING COMMUTE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY SNOWBELTS OF NE OHIO AND ACROSS NW PA AS 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING BELOW -15 C COMBINED WITH NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND
DEEP WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LEADS TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY NOTABLE IN SOUTHERN CUYAHOGA, NORTHERN SUMMIT,
NORTHERN PORTAGE, GEAUGA, SOUTHERN LAKE, INLAND ASHTABULA,
SOUTHERN ERIE, AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES WHERE UPSLOPING WILL LEAD
TO HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE LAKE ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. HIGHS WILL OCCUR AROUND
SUNRISE, WHEN UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ARE EXPECTED, THEN FALL
THROUGH THE 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD CAUSE A FLASH
FREEZE ON ANY WET ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND SURFACES THAT ARE NOT
TREATED, BUT THE BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE FLASH FREEZE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR JUST AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE. AS 850 MB TEMPS
DROP TO -19 TO -21 C WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 20S, WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS IS NOT AT CRITERIA FOR A
COLD WEATHER HEADLINE, IT WILL STILL POSE A COLD EXPOSURE RISK.
PEOPLE SHOULD LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS AND DRESS IN LAYERS IF YOU
NEED TO GO OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS THE LAKE ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SNOW ENDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE
WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. NW
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE BANDS ACROSS THE
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELTS OF NE OHIO, AS WELL AS NW PA.
THE VERY COLD 850 MB TEMPS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY, BUT THE MAIN QUESTION MARK IS THE DEGREE OF
LEFTOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING DRIER AS THE COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER, AND WITH A SHORT
FETCH, THIS SHOULD KEEP ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS THURSDAY FROM
GETTING OUT OF HAND. THE TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE MOST PART,
WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELTS OF
NE OHIO AND 3 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE WILDCARD IS A
POTENTIAL LAKE HURON BAND INTO EASTERN ERIE COUNTY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. SOME HREF GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z RGEM IS HIGHER ON
SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THAT AREA, BUT GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE MOISTURE PROFILE, KEPT SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AT
THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRING THE SNOW SHOWERS TO AN END THURSDAY
NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT AREAS, TOTAL SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND 1 INCH OR LESS IN NW OHIO.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
DEEP TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW KEEPING THE PATTERN VERY COLD AND
ACTIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW 30S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A PRETTY STRONG MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CLIPPER
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA, ALTHOUGH WSW BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW MAY KEEP THE BULK OF THIS IN WESTERN NY. THE CLIPPER ITSELF
IS TRENDING MORE POTENT AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. ANOTHER AND COLDER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK THROUGH THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
ANOTHER CLIPPER MONDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW AND EVEN
COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE TEENS. BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WIND CHILLS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THESE WIND
CHILLS WILL BE EVEN COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, EXPECTING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STARTING OFF VFR, ALTHOUGH OVERCAST FL090-120 FOR THE MOST PART
ACROSS THE REGION, AND WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE FOR MOST TERMINALS. WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, DRY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AFTER 10Z OR SO
TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY START OUT WITH RAIN AT FIRST, BUT WILL
LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY. CEILINGS LOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT, AND VISIBILITIES WILL AS WELL IN SNOW. IFR AT TIMES
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED, BUT AS SNOW GOES,
VISIBILITIES CAN BE VARIABLE AND MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. NON-VFR LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-8FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS OF LAKE ERIE AHEAD OF A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY 20-30KTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUING AT 4-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY. WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY/OFFSHORE 15-25KTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEP
THE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE OPEN WATER ZONES AROUND 4-8FT ONCE AGAIN,
BUT IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND 1-2FT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ011>014-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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