471
FXUS61 KCLE 140758
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
258 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY PA FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
HEAVY SNOW BANDS PERSIST. THE LAKE EFFECT SETUP FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW IN THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL HEADLINE
CHANGES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TODAY, AND A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH MAY
CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
2) LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING, BRINGING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND MORE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN NE OH AND NW PA.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BELOW INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, POSING A
MINOR COLD EXPOSURE RISK.
4) A COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SNOW, SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES, AND WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO START THE DAY. THEREFORE,
WITH FORCING SURROUNDING BUT NOT OVER THE AREA, IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND HAVE A
SLIGHTLY DRIER START TO THE FORECAST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT
FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE TOLEDO METRO AREA BY NOON AND SPREAD
EAST THIS AFTERNOON, CHANGING ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. THIS BAND OF
SNOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A HALF INCH TO INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BELT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW TRAVEL
IMPACTS JUST DUE TO THE EVENING COMMUTE TIMING. HOWEVER, FOR THE
SNOW BELT REGION OF NE OH AND NW PA, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE WITH THIS SNOW BAND
THERE COULD BE A QUICK 1-2" OF SNOW FOR THE CLEVELAND METRO UP
ALONG I-90 INTO NW PA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE TO
BE A BIT MORE MESSY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. SOME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS, OR EVEN A SNOW SQUALL WARNING, ARE LIKELY FOR LATER
TODAY, ESPECIALLY IF THERE CAN BE AN ORGANIZED BAND WITH
VISIBILITY DROPS, INCREASED WINDS, AND QUICK ROAD IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -19 C SETTLING OVER LAKE
ERIE, WHICH IS BACK TO BEING MOSTLY ICE-FREE. WHILE SNOW WILL
START MORE SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT, SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD SUSTAIN AND TRANSITION TO A MORE TRADITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR NE OH AND NW PA. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
THE FORECAST WILL BE - WHERE WILL THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW TRACK
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY? OVERALL, THE TREND IN MANY OF THE MODELS
IS FOR THIS LOW TO BE STRONGER AND MORE HELPFUL IN PULLING SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
APPALACHIANS BACK TOWARD LAKE ERIE. THAT IS WORTHY OF ABOUT
ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW IN NE OH/NW PA FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HOWEVER, DESPITE BEING 20-30 HOURS AWAY FROM THIS LOW MOVING
ACROSS LAKE ERIE, THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD AND THIS WILL BE
KEY TO THE LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE CLOSED LOW TRACK ON SOME GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE
RGEM AND ECMWF, SHOW A LOW FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER CLEVELAND/NE
OH BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WOULD OFFER MORE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR
SNOW TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SNOW TOTALS TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT.
WHEREAS, OTHER GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM, HAVE THIS
LOW TRACKING MORE FROM LONDON, ONTARIO TO JAMESTOWN, NY TONIGHT
AND SUGGESTING MORE EFFICIENT SNOWFALL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO NY AND LESS QPF/SNOW OVER NE OH AND NW PA TONIGHT. IN THE
END, OPTED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO SCENARIOS FOR QPF AND
SNOW, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL ALSO BE KEY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LAKE
HURON LAKE EFFECT BANDS THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GOING FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. OVERALL, THE
CONSENSUS IS THAT SOME PORTION OF ERIE COUNTY PA WILL BE THE
MAIN TARGET BUT THE SPREAD MAY BE ALBION/CRANESVILLE/EDINBORO
VS. COLT STATION/LITTLE HOPE/LOWVILLE/WATTSBURG. THEREFORE, HAVE
TOTALS IN SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY PA AS 6 TO 10 INCHES THROUGH 1
AM FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THE SNOW
BANDS END UP SETTING UP.
WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED, HAVE UPGRADED SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY,
PA TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 11 AM TODAY TO 1 AM
FRIDAY. HAVE LEFT ALL OF THE OTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ALONE WITH THE TIMING BUT AMOUNTS ARE UP AN INCH ON AVERAGE OR
SO. IF A MORE WET AND SNOWY PATTERN EMERGES TONIGHT, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW IN NE OH AND NW PA AND ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED AND SOME ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL
USHER IN COLDER AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -19 C
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. WITH ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
REGION OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH, THERE WILL BE A
NOTABLE IMPACT TO WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO 5
TO -5 F OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THIS
WILL POSE A MINOR COLD EXPOSURE RISK TO THOSE OUTDOORS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
AS CONTINUALLY MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL SYSTEMS STARTING THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SUSTAINED COLD AIR AND CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WITH ORIGINS OVER THE
ARCTIC WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ALLOW FOR COLD
CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. EACH CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES AND FLARE UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE.
HOWEVER, EACH SYSTEM WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES EACH TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S STARTING
ON SUNDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN WITH 10 TO
20 MPH OF FLOW AND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT WILL START NEAR ZERO ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TREND TO BELOW ZERO FOR THE MORNING COMMUTES
ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNALS THAT
THIS COLDER AIR MASS MAY TREND COLDER AND THAT COULD PROMPT COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES SOME TIME NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR IN
LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN/SNOW. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS
IT SWEEPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. A MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS IS LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71
CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIFR VSBYS IN SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PARTICULARLY AT CLE.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. NON-VFR LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NON-VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 4-8FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS OF LAKE ERIE AHEAD OF A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY 20-30KTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUING AT 4-8FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY. WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY/OFFSHORE 15-25KTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEP
THE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE OPEN WATER ZONES AROUND 4-8FT ONCE AGAIN,
BUT IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES AROUND 1-2FT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ011>014-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ001-003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...26
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