312
FXUS61 KCLE 151729
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AHEAD FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST. WE ARE EXPECTING A COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK TO DEVELOP
AND LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
IMPACT TRAVEL AND CAUSE HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SNOWBELT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
3) THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A
COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE NIGHTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO DEGREES. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE BELOW ZERO FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
2) THE VERY COLD WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WILL ALSO BRING SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
THE SNOWBELT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE MAIN KEY MESSAGE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS THE ONGOING
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS BOTH THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELT REGION THIS MORNING. ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING, WE ARE
SEEING SEVERAL ORGANIZED BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THERE
IS A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SQUALLS NEARLY
STATIONARY COMING FROM THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CLEVELAND METRO. THERE IS
ANOTHER DISTINCT BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH A LAKE
HURON CONNECTION COMING INTO THE AREA AROUND ASHTABULA AND THE
FAR CORNER OF NEOH AND NWPA. WE ARE ALSO SEEING ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
FROM EASTERN LORAIN COUNTY EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CLEVELAND AREA INTO GEAUGA AND LAKE COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS LIKELY FROM THE DEEP, MOIST
FLOW COMING OFF THE BOTH LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE AND BEING
HELPED BY THE SUBTLE ELEVATION RISE OF THE "HEIGHTS" ON THE
SOUTHER AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE CLE METRO. WITH THAT SAID,
TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED THIS MORNING WITH VARYING WEATHER AND
ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.
A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND THE MAIN CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING. THIS RATHER STRONG AND NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EASTWARD
TODAY. WE WILL DEALING WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING OVER
LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE INTO OUR AREA.
THE OVERALL TREND TODAY WILL BE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND STORM
TOTALS WILL BE IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT, LIKE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AROUND GEAUGA COUNTY AND INLAND CRAWFORD AND ERIE COUNTY PA.
FOR THE LATEST INFO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS,
PLEASE CHECK THE TEXT PRODUCT OF THE WARNINGS OR THE WEATHER
STORY GRAPHIC ON OUR WEBPAGE. THE HIGHEST POPS AND COVERAGE OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING,
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE LAKE EFFECT AND SLOWLY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SNOWBELT OF NEOH. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LINGER FOR NWPA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE IT SHUTS
DOWN AND MOVES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME AREAS OF FAR NEOH AND
MORE SO INTO NWPA MAY AGAIN HAVE TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE EVENING
COMMUTE. WE DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING AND ADVISORIES. THESE WEATHER IMPACT ALERTS ARE
EXPECTED DROP OFF LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SLOWLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE 25 TO 35 MPH WHICH WILL
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING NEAR ZERO AND
STAYING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW MACHINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TEENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER CONCERN WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST WILL
ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. A VERY COLD WEATHER
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER FOR MULTIPLE DAY. A LARGE, DEEP
LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETUP AND STAY IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT
WILL TRACK DOWN OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND
BACKSIDE AND BASE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL. EACH OF THESE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING DOWN AN ARCTIC FRONT TO REINFORCE
THE VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THIS
WINTER SEASON ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S. THE
FIRST ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY. THE SECOND ARCTIC
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY. AND THERE MAYBE A 3RD
COLD FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MORE IMPORTANTLY AND IMPACTFUL WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO FOR MULTIPLE
NIGHTS LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDED COLDER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUBZERO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AND HIGH TEMPS
NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING DANGEROUS COLD LEVELS -10F TO
-20F POTENTIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ALONG WITH THE COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURES SYSTEMS AND COLD FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SNOWBELT
REGION OF NEOH AND NWPA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON IF AND HOW THE NEXT SETUP FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THERE
COULD BE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT DEVELOPS AND PERSIST
FOR MULTIPLE DAYS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED AND WEATHER
AWARE!
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOW CONFINED TO TERMINALS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-71. EXPECT FOR REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH ~20Z/THU AT KCLE TO
~23Z/THU AT KERI. ELSEWHERE, TERMINALS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ~00Z/FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 8-12 KNOTS WHILE TURNING
WESTERLY THIS EVENING AND SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NON-VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WITH THIS UPDATE, OPTED TO
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS
THROUGH SATURDAY AS ELEVATED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST.
TODAY, WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN WAVES ALONG THE
NEARSHORE OF 4 TO 7 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ALLOWING WAVES ALONG THE NEARSHORE TO SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3
FEET INTO SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION, THE ARRIVAL OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS HAS RESULTED IN
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE LAKE AS STRONG WINDS, NEAR
FREEZING LAKE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS. AS A RESULT, A
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2PM THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY WILL
DIMINISH. BY SUNDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS
YEAR AND ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ009-019.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ010>014-020>022-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ023-
032-033.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>144.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ144>148-164>168.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
DISCUSSION...77/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...13
MARINE...04
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