563
FXUS61 KCLE 160814
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
314 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT A VERY COLD WEATHER
OUTBREAK IS COMING TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND. INITIALLY THE LAKE EFFECT WILL
FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK, BUT
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA FOR A TIME PERIOD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH
COLDER WEATHER RETURNS.
2) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRIGID WEATHER WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
10S AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
3) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURE TODAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER BECOMES FRIGID FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN THIS PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME STRONGER AND DEEP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PUSH OF MILDER
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY REACHING
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. TODAY AND EARLY
TOMORROW WILL BE THE WARMEST WEATHER WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST FOR
A GOOD WHILE. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
AREA. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE VERY
LIGHT UP TO AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
READY OR NOT...SOME FRIGID WEATHER IS COMING OUR WAY LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THIS COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY, USHERING
IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
AND POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 10S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THAT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCATIONS GOING BELOW ZERO FOR
LOW TEMPS. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH VALUES POTENTIALLY BETWEEN -10F AND -20F. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY THIS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL STEER THE POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW INTO FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THERE
IS INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
IMPACT THESE AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TERMINALS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BECOME MOSTLY VFR WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 030-035 WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS AS A
CLOUD DECK MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR
BY 13-16Z AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
DROP AS A RESULT. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS, BUT GENERALLY WON'T BE
PROLONGED. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AROUND 21-01Z THIS EVENING
AS THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS ALL WILL BACK TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AROUND 12Z.
AROUND THAT TIMEFRAME, WINDS WILL START TO GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNTIL AFTER
00Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. NON-VFR
WITHIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED WINDOW OF HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT, EXPECT FOR
HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM VERMILION EAST TO RIPLEY
NY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. ANTICIPATE FOR ADVISORIES
TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AND AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
EXTENDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ELEVATED
WINDS AND COLD AIR REMAIN ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS MOVES
OVER THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. COLD AIR TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER WINDOW OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AND ADDITIONAL HEADLINES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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