599
FXUS61 KCLE 161205
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT A VERY COLD WEATHER
OUTBREAK IS COMING TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND. INITIALLY THE LAKE EFFECT WILL
FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK, BUT
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA FOR A TIME PERIOD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE MUCH
COLDER WEATHER RETURNS.
2) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRIGID WEATHER WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
10S AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
3) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURE TODAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER BECOMES FRIGID FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN THIS PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME STRONGER AND DEEP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PUSH OF MILDER
WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY REACHING
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. TODAY AND EARLY
TOMORROW WILL BE THE WARMEST WEATHER WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST FOR
A GOOD WHILE. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
AREA. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE VERY
LIGHT UP TO AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
READY OR NOT...SOME FRIGID WEATHER IS COMING OUR WAY LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THIS COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY, USHERING
IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
AND POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 10S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THAT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCATIONS GOING BELOW ZERO FOR
LOW TEMPS. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH VALUES POTENTIALLY BETWEEN -10F AND -20F. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY THIS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL STEER THE POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW INTO FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THERE
IS INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
IMPACT THESE AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR
AND IFR FROM WEST TO EAST IN LOW CEILINGS AND VSBYS FROM SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
WEST TO EAST MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THIS EVENING,
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR PERSISTENT IFR VSBYS WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW IS AT
CAK/YNG. FOLLOWING THIS AREA OF SNOW, LOW VSBYS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ALBEIT MORE IN TRANSIENT SNOW SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS TOO LOW FOR
ANY PREVAILING OR TEMPO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, 10 TO 12
KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 ON
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. NON-VFR MAY LINGER IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
AN ACTIVE MARINE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ICE CONTINUES TO GROW ACROSS THE
WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE, THUS WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSING ON THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS IN THIS DISCUSSION.
ELEVATED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL RETURN BY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED ONCE THE CURRENT HEADLINES
EXPIRE TONIGHT AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARRIVE
ON SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR GALES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. IN ADDITION, AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY, INCREASING THE RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
FAVOR A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ146-
147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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