978
FXUS61 KCLE 161938
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
238 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY HAS INCREASED,
ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW VARIOUS CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXIST BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
2) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRIGID WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
10S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST WEATHER AND GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
3) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE EFFECT IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
4) ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT AMOUNT OF SNOW AND BREEZY WEATHER MAY
ACCOMPANY IT, WITH LAKE EFFECT POSSIBLE (LOWER CONFIDENCE)
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE SNOWBELT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH VARIOUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
VORT MAXES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SLOW-MOVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA BETWEEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. A BAND OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE IS ONGOING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OH AND WILL CONTINUE EAST, PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (LOWER CONFIDENCE
FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO DRIER LOW-LEVELS AND WEAKER LIFT). SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE UNDER 1", THOUGH
BRIEF VISIBILITY DROPS TO 1/2 OF A MILE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
UPSTREAM...THESE BRIEF EMBEDDED BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY
CONTINUE TO OCCUR AS THE SNOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A FINDLAY TO AKRON TO MEADVILLE LINE. A
SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW COATED ROADS
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY MODERATE BURSTS.
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. LIFT AND ENHANCED
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL GRAZE OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF UP TO AROUND AN INCH TONIGHT WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF A MT. VERNON TO ERIE, PA LINE, WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST OF THAT MINIMAL.
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST OH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. DURING THIS
TIME, MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A MORE CONVECTIVE FLAVOR TO THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE LIFT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. THIS RESULTS IN A LOWER CHANCE (20-40%)
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF I-71 INCREASING TO 50-60%
FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNDER AN INCH
ACROSS THE BOARD, THOUGH THE CHANCE DOES EXIST FOR A FEW MORE
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS (ESPECIALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
I-71) TO DROP LOCALLY OVER AN INCH, SHARPLY REDUCE VISIBILITY,
AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATE ON ROADS PRODUCING A BRIEF TRAVEL HAZARD.
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY TRY TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROAD
IMPACTS, THOUGH TEMPERATURES DO QUICKLY FALL WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THE GROUND IS COLDER AFTER THIS MORNING. SO,
CERTAINLY DON'T WANT TO RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW
SQUALLS IF PARTICULARLY INTENSE ACTIVITY CAN PLAY OUT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAK CAPE UP TO ABOUT 12K FEET/-25C AHEAD OF
THE FRONT EAST OF I-71 WITH MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF ABOUT
30KT, SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE (WITH A VERY
LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OH) AND PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY (UP TO 40 MPH) WINDS.
AFTER A "MILDER" NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S, HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S IN TOLEDO TO THE MID 30S IN YOUNGSTOWN, WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO DROP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE FIRST PIECE OF COLDER
AIR. LOWS WILL GENERALLY DIP TO 10-15 BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MINIMUM WIND CHILLS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 0. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE OF 20 DEGREES WITH WIND CHILLS STAYING IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID 10S AND MINIMUM WIND CHILLS NEAR 0 TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MONDAY, BRINGING
A DEEPER CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHS EARLY
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR TO 15-20
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE BRISK ON MONDAY WITH WEST- SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS NEAR TO A BIT
BELOW 0 ACROSS THE AREA. WIND CHILLS SHOULD FALL TO -5 TO -15
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BOTTOM OUT AT -10 TO -20 MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 10S ON
TUESDAY, WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES (TAKING THE
AVERAGE OF THE HIGH AND LOW FOR A DAY) OF 16 DEGREES OR LOWER
FOR 48 HOURS OR LONGER YIELDS INCREASED INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES
DUE TO COLD IN OUR AREA...THIS INCLUDES THINGS LIKE DEAD CAR
BATTERIES AND FROZEN PIPES. WE WILL REACH THESE TEMPERATURES FOR
A MARGINAL DURATION OF ABOUT 48 HOURS BETWEEN MONDAY MORNING
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES DUE TO THE COLD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATER
FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEAR TO STAY TO OUR NORTH, SO ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT LOOK MINIMAL WITH PARTS OF
THE AREA LIKELY REMAINING ENTIRELY DRY. A PROLONGED AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED OFF
THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS INTO WESTERN NY...HOWEVER, A
PERIOD OF MORE WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM SOME POINT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SINKS
INTO FAR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW TO MODERATE, AS SOME MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INSISTENT ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING. THOSE IN FAR NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA SHOULD
MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE GAIN CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA AND RATHER LIMITED AMOUNTS OF SNOW ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT, IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. A BRIEF SPELL OF MILDER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE BELOW AVERAGE WEATHER BEHIND IT.
THIS WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY SYSTEM, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
BIT OF SNOW AREA-WIDE FOLLOWED BY LOWER-CONFIDENCE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LIKELY
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND UNCERTAINTY OVER WIND
DIRECTION LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE
TO MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR IN CIGS/VIS AS A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS
PUSHES EAST. EXPECT FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WITH BETTER POTENTIAL TO
DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG AND EAST
OF I-71 LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER WEST TO EAST PUSH OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS AGAIN
ON SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 ON
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. NON-VFR MAY LINGER IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
AN ACTIVE MARINE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ICE CONTINUES TO GROW ACROSS THE
WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE, THUS WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSING ON THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS IN THIS DISCUSSION.
ELEVATED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL RETURN BY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED ONCE THE CURRENT HEADLINES
EXPIRE TONIGHT AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARRIVE
ON SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR GALES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. IN ADDITION, AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY, INCREASING THE RISK FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
FAVOR A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ146-
147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...13
MARINE...KAHN
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