000
FXUS61 KCLE 170724
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
224 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS INCREASED FOR PARTS OF
FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
2) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRIGID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 10S AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20F ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
3) SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
CHANCE FOR MORE IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LAKE EFFECT IS MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OFF AND ON TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVER SNOW SHOWERS OR BRIEF
SQUALLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE
BRIEF HEAVY BURST OF SNOW COULD BRIEFLY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FALL BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY SNOWFALL TODAY WILL BE
LIGHT AN INCH OR LESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD
FRONT WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY, THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF -10F TO -20F
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT OF DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING AND MORE
IMPACTFUL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS INCREASING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
INITIALLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL
BE TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK. BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE ERIE, THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR
NORTHEAST OHIO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE, A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
NEEDED TO PARTS OF NWPA AND MAYBE FAR NEOH. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AREAWIDE AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRATUS DECK WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS REMAINS,
THOUGH WILL TREND TOWARDS LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL OHIO WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 2 SM WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-77 WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR AS A DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME WEST WHILE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NON- VFR MAY LINGER IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ICE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS. MAINTAINED
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BUT A NEW SET OF ADVISORIES WILL
NEED TO BE ISSUED TO COVER THE NEXT ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS AND
WAVES ON LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE LAKE AND STRONG WINDS, HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15-25 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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