235
FXUS61 KCLE 171748
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1248 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS INCREASED FOR PARTS OF
FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
2) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRIGID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 10S AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20F ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
3) SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
CHANCE FOR MORE IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LAKE EFFECT IS MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID PER LATEST TRENDS IN OBS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, INCREASED POP'S THROUGH THIS EARLY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING PRECIP BANDING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE E'WARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. AT THE SURFACE, THIS
FRONT WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG A HURON TO MARION, OH LINE AS OF
9:45 AM EST THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REST OF OUR CWA BY 5 PM THIS EVENING, GIVE OR TAKE ONE
HOUR. CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL RELEASE WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST ~1 KM AGL
AND RESULT IN STRONG/MAXIMIZED ASCENT AT A CLOUD TEMPERATURE
NEAR -8C TO -10C AS SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR
0C. THUS, EXPECT STEADY TO HEAVY SNOW AND GRAUPEL SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS RELATED TO MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALOFT REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHILE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT.
FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2" OR LESS.
GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA,
WHERE A SOMEWHAT COLDER ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE MORE EASILY.
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OFF AND ON TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVER SNOW SHOWERS OR BRIEF
SQUALLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE
BRIEF HEAVY BURST OF SNOW COULD BRIEFLY CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FALL BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY SNOWFALL TODAY WILL BE
LIGHT AN INCH OR LESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD
FRONT WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY, THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF -10F TO -20F
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT OF DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING AND MORE
IMPACTFUL HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS INCREASING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
INITIALLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL
BE TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK. BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE ERIE, THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR
NORTHEAST OHIO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE, A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY BE
NEEDED TO PARTS OF NWPA AND MAYBE FAR NEOH. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AREAWIDE AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH 20 OR 21Z WILL BE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS ALONG A COLD FRONT, EXTENDING FROM NEAR HZY TO CAK
AND MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 30KT. BRIEF LIFR VSBY AND A QUICK
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS ACCOMPANYING THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KT. MVFR CEILINGS LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT, BEFORE EITHER SCATTERING OUT
OR RISING TO VFR INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
TURNING MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS THIS EVENING,
OUTSIDE OF ERI WHERE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NON-VFR MAY LINGER IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ICE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A COMBINATION OF GALES AND FREEZING
SPRAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN
OF LAKE ERIE AS A CLIPPER SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
USHERING IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION, THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH LAKE AIR TEMPERATURES OVER ICE- FREE AREAS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, A GALE WATCH
APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
AROUND 25 KNOTS, INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND BEGIN TO FAVOR A WEST DIRECTION BY
THURSDAY
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...77/JASZKA
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...KAHN
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