955
FXUS61 KCLE 180905
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE ARE NO IMPACTFUL CHANGES REGARDING THIS MORNING'S FORECAST
UPDATE. WE ARE EXPECTING A BLAST OF FRIGID WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS
POSSIBLE. WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN OF LAKE
ERIE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY
TRY WOBBLE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE OF FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
FRIGID WEATHER HEADING THIS WAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10F TO -20F POSSIBLE.
2) A LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL DEVELOP WITH VERY COLD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS PARTICULAR LAKE EFFECT SETUP WILL MAINLY IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK. THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY WOBBLE
TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE OF FAR NEOH AND NWPA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
3) OUTSIDE THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW, THERE MAY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK AND BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR FOR THIS WINTER SEASON IS HEADING OUR
WAY. THIS BLAST OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
MONDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE ARCTIC
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST AREAS MAY CLIMB BRIEFLY INTO THE LOW 20S
MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TEENS AND INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
DROP BELOW ZERO BETWEEN -5F AND -10F BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST AND
BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE ARE
EXPECTING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN AROUND OR ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW ZERO FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE. THERE WILL BE A BREEZY FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10F AND
-20F. WE WILL LIKELY NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IF FORECAST
CONTINUES TO TREND THIS WAY. DESPITE SKIES BEING MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS FOR HIGHS. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL
HOVERING AROUND ZERO DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL AGAIN
BE VERY COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE. WE WILL RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 30 ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER LAKE ERIE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. THE OVERALL LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW OF THIS
COLD AIRMASS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHICH GENERALLY
FAVORS A SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE MORE IMPACTFUL TOWARDS
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK. THE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DEVELOP AND
ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE BY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE NEAR OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE LAKESHORE OF FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA NEOH/NWPA WITH ITS TRAJECTORY HEADING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK. WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT CLOSELY AND NOWCAST THE
FORECAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE LIKE THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS LAKE EFFECT TO WOBBLE A LITTLE SOUTHWARD MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE OF
ASHTABULA COUNTY AND ERIE COUNTY PA. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THIS LAKE EFFECT BRUSHES ALONG THAT
LAKESHORE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THE REST OF THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE MAY SEE SOME PASSING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE
EFFECT BUT ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT AN INCH OR TWO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES THIS UPCOMING WEEK FOR SOME
GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERIODICALLY
STARTING TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AND PUSH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THROUGH AREA EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AND
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, IT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AREAWIDE. ANY SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH AROUND AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS OF
NORTHERN OHIO AND NWPA FOR THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AND SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
THERE WILL BE A WEATHER SYSTEM MID-WEEK THAT COULD BRING LIGHT
SNOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. IT WILL ARRIVE
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL AROUND AN INCH OR TWO WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
COULD HAVE SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2-5 KFT LINGERS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-77. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS, MAINLY IN THE
FAR EASTERN PORTION OF EASTERN OHIO AND INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. DRY AIR BUILDS IN AND SHOULD SEE STRATUS DISSIPATE
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AND
CEILINGS LOWERING SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 03Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
AN ACTIVE MARINE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPACTFUL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT USHERS IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS OF
LAKE ERIE. IN THIS UPDATE, THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A GALE WARNING, AND A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE ICE-FREE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS
AS LAKE AIR TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
ALSO LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST FETCH.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY, THOUGH ELEVATED
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY.
GENERALLY MODERATE ICE GROWTH IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR TO RAPID ICE
GROWTH BEING STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING OF EXISTING ICE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ142>145-
162>165.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LEZ146>149-166>169.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LEZ146>149-166>169.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page