939
FXUS61 KCLE 182053
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER ALERTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED:
- WIND ADVISORY FOR CUYAHOGA, LAKE, ASHTABULA, AND ERIE (PA)
COUNTIES FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN OH AND NW PA THAT
TAKES EFFECT AT 1 PM MONDAY FOR MORROW, RICHLAND, HURON, AND
ERIE (OH) COUNTIES WEST. FARTHER EAST, THE ADVISORY TAKES
EFFECT AT 7 PM MONDAY. THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ERIE COUNTY, PA FROM 10 AM MONDAY
TO 7 AM TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, OVERALL, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH. WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -10F TO NEARLY -20F
ARE EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING.
2) BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY.
3) PERIODS OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ARE EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
4) OUTSIDE THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW, PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD,
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PRIMARILY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY,
JANUARY 25TH AS NET AND DEEP TROUGHING ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UNUSUALLY-COLD AIR MASS, PERSISTS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
IMPACTS AT LEAST MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, INCLUDING
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, OUR CWA IS
EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY RESIDE IN THE COLD SECTOR BASED ON THE
LATEST PROJECTED MID LATITUDE CYCLONE TRACK. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP E'WARD THROUGH OUR CWA BETWEEN ABOUT DAYBREAK
AND MIDDAY MONDAY AND USHER-IN A COLDER AIR MASS BEFORE A WARM
FRONT SWEEPS NE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. PRIOR TO
THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
10F TO 15F RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY AND THE 0F TO 10F RANGE
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20'S ON MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES TUMBLE BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT. ON TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH ONLY
THE 10F TO 20F RANGE. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM-OUT NEAR 5F TO 10F
TUESDAY EVENING, BEFORE THE WARM FRONT USHERS-IN A WARMER AIR
MASS ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF.
AS FOR WIND CHILLS, THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO WIDESPREAD
SUB-ZERO VALUES AND GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN MID-MORNING
AND MID-AFTERNOON ON MONDAY, BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS AROUND -10F TO -20F ARE EXPECTED LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOMEWHAT "WARMER" WIND CHILLS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY, LOW-LEVEL WAA IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 30'S BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS GENERALLY E'WARD ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, NET LOW-LEVEL CAA IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH. ADDITIONAL SUB-
ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. BASED ON LATEST TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST TRENDS,
ADDITIONAL SUB- ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ON MONDAY, THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT RELEASE AT LEAST WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST
1 KM AGL AND RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG AND MAXIMIZED ASCENT
AT CLOUD TEMPERATURES NEAR -10C TO -15C. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY MEAN WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 30 KNOTS
IN THE 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. THUS, SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE. QUICK
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1" OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE
FRONT'S PASSAGE, WSW'ERLY TO W'ERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST UP TO 35 TO 50 MPH DUE TO THE FOLLOWING: SEVERAL HOURS
OF RAPID MSLP RISES; STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
LOW-LEVEL WINDS/CAA INCREASING WITH HEIGHT, RESPECTIVELY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MECHANICAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO TAP
INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO ROUGHLY I-90 IN NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA
COUNTY THROUGH ERIE COUNTY, PA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS
COMBINED WITH ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW AMIDST LAKE-INDUCED CONVECTIVE
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TAPPING INTO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
WINDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO EASE TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS GRADUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
SYNOPTIC MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES, AT LEAST SOMEWHAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW (LES) IS ONGOING OVER AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, LES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AMIDST A SW'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR -15C OVER THE ~1C ICE-FREE WATERS OF
LAKE ERIE. THE LES IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WHICH WILL ALLOW LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE.
THE E'WARD PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR
22C BELOW ZERO AND MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TOWARD W'ERLY
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THUS, LES BANDING SHOULD
SETTLE SLIGHTLY S'WARD INTO MOST OF THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT OF NE
OH AND NW PA, BUT ESPECIALLY ERIE COUNTY, PA. THE LES SHOULD BE
STEADY TO HEAVY AT TIMES AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT
AND CONTRIBUTES TO SIZABLE LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY. RESULTING
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1-3", BUT UP TO 6" OF SNOW
SHOULD ACCUMULATE IN FAR-NORTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY, PA DUE TO
GREATER PERSISTENCE OF STEADIER LES BANDING. DURING TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE LES, AMIDST CONTINUED
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS, SHOULD SHIFT BACK N'WARD AND OUT OF
OUR REGION AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SW'ERLY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH POISED TO APPROACH THE LAKE ERIE REGION
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A BRIEF HIATUS FROM LES AS THE WARM
SECTOR OVERSPREADS LAKE ERIE AND CAUSES ICE-FREE LAKE SURFACE
TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES TO SHRINK TO LESS THAN 13C
FOR A TIME. RENEWED LES DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AMIDST A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND SW'ERLY
TO W'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR PERIODS OF LES THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES SHOULD CAUSE MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO
VARY BETWEEN SW'ERLY AND NW'ERLY. THEREFORE, LES SHOULD IMPACT
NE OH AND NW PA AT TIMES. HOWEVER, EXACT MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DIRECTION AND LES PLACEMENT, INTENSITY, AND AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
OUTSIDE THE LES AND AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT-RELATED SNOW
SHOWERS, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY DUE TO MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRECEDING AN E'WARD-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THIS SNOW SHOULD ACCUMULATE 1" OR
LESS. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SNOW, OUTSIDE THE
AFOREMENTIONED LES, SHOULD IMPACT NORTHERN OH AND NW PA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY DUE TO MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES, MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE WARM FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD OCCUR, BUT EXACT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OUTSIDE OF TOL AND FDY WHO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, VFR PERSISTS THOUGH WITH SOME CEILINGS
OF 040-050 FLOATING AROUND PARTS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AND LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY,
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW WILL
BECOME LIGHTER INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH AN ARCTIC FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH FROM WEST-EAST 12-18Z COULD BRING SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH BRIEF BUT IMPACTFUL VSBY DROPS.
CONFIDENCE IN THAT INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE AREA,
THOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ANYWHERE.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY NOT CLEAR AS QUICKLY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-15KT THIS AFTERNOON SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KT TONIGHT. THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15KT
WITH GUSTS 20-25KT AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT EARLY MONDAY, THEN
SHIFT MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH GUSTS
30-35KT (UP TO 40KT NEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ERIE SHORELINE) BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP TO 15-25KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY,
SHIFTING A BIT MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-40KT WITH GUSTS 40-50KT BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN 15-28KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH 30-35KT GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN WATERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BASINS. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY STILL PEAK AS HIGH AS 15 FEET
IN THE OPEN WATERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE. THE ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING OVER THE LAKE AND ELEVATED WINDS/WAVES WILL LEAD TO
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN AS POSTED, AND
WILL ADD A LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM MONDAY FOR THE
WESTERN BASIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW GALE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS BRISK AT 15-28KT THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO 10-20KT FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
RAMPS BACK UP TO 20-30KT BEHIND A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
WINDS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT
20-30KT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN 20-30KT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADS IN.
GENERALLY MODERATE ICE GROWTH IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR TO RAPID ICE GROWTH
BEING STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING
OF EXISTING ICE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ010>014-020>023-030>033-038-047-089.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ011-012-014-
089.
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ142>145-
162>165.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LEZ142>144-162>164.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
LEZ146>149-166>169.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LEZ146>149-166>169.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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