541
FXUS61 KCLE 021822
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
122 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIDESPREAD MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THUS, INCREASED POP'S TO 60%. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL FORECAST THIS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT EXACT ACCUMULATIONS AND RELATED IMPACTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
2) PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND AGAIN THIS FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NET TROUGHING ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ABNORMALLY-COLD AIR
MASS, REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND WILL IMPACT AT
LEAST MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEK, INCLUDING NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. ACCORDINGLY, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN OUR CWA. FOR CONTEXT,
OUR NORMAL HIGHS ARE NEAR 35F AND NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 20F THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE EXITS SLOWLY FROM OUR
REGION AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS E'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NET
LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAYTIME
HIGHS REACHING THE 20'S TODAY AND TOMORROW, RESPECTIVELY.
WEDNESDAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20'S IN THE NET LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR 15F TO 20F AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY
AND REACH MAINLY THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0F AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, RESPECTIVELY. THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT
SLOWLY E'WARD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC
FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL
WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE 20'S ON THURSDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 10F TO 15F THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
THE "WARMEST" DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20'S
TO LOWER 30'S BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE. BEHIND THE
FRONT, AN ARCTIC RIDGE SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE MOVES FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. FOR EXAMPLE, WIDESPREAD SUB-
ZERO MINIMUM WIND CHILLS SHOULD OCCUR THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK, MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PRECEDING THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT, IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY,
BETWEEN ABOUT MID-MORNING AND LATE EVENING. THIS SNOW SHOULD
LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT A GIVEN LOCATION AND TOTAL ONE INCH OR
LESS. BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD SNOW, A SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MAY ALLOW LIMITED LAKE-EFFECT SNOW (LES) TO
DEVELOP OVER MAINLY ICE-COVERED LAKE ERIE AND STREAM GENERALLY
E'WARD ACROSS FAR-NE OH AND NW PA THIS EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY AMIDST W'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THIS LES SHOULD BE ONE INCH OR LESS. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED DUE, IN
PART TO THE FOLLOWING: THE RELEASE OF WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
IN THE LOWEST ~1 KM AGL VIA CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT; MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF ANOTHER E'WARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE ONE INCH OR LESS.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED PROJECTED WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. DURING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE FOLLOWING:
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SE'WARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT; THE RELEASE OF WEAK/SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY VIA CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE
ARCTIC FRONT. EXACT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS ROUND OF SNOW REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE
INCH OF SNOW ARE 70% OR GREATER ACROSS NW PA, NE OH, AND MUCH OF
NORTH-CENTRAL OH, WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER FARTHER WEST.
THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4" OF SNOW IN OUR CWA
ARE AROUND 30% TO 40% IN NE OH AND NW PA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS IN NWP MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE COMING DAYS.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, PERIODIC AND
SCATTERED LES SHOWERS SHOULD TARGET OUR CWA AMIDST A MAINLY
NW'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST AIR
OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE PRIMARILY ICE-FREE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND ANY ICE-FREE WATERS OF LAKES HURON AND ERIE. GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LAKES ERIE AND HURON, LES
INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME IFR
VISIBILITY MAY DEVELOP WITH THE SNOW BUT WOULD BE FLEETING. MORE
SUSTAINED IFR CEILINGS ARE OUT IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA AND WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN OHIO IN SOME CAPACITY THIS EVENING. CEILING
TRENDS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR-MVFR RANGE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH SNOW CLEARING OUT TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST AND CEILINGS WILL START TO TREND BACK TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR EXPECTED IN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LAKE ERIE (~95%) WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THROUGH THE WEEK AS PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8-12 KNOTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page