681
FXUS61 KCLE 021934
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
234 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH A LINE
CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
2) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING THAT WILL BRING A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE, THOUGH WEAKER, MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT THE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FIGHTING TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHEN IT REACHES THE
SURFACE, IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN
TO AROUND 3 TO 5 MILES. THIS LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE
THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, FLOW BEHIND THIS
INITIAL WAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THOUGH, A LIMITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ
WHICH WON'T ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH
LESS FURTHER WEST INTO OHIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
EVENING UNTIL THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT AS THE
MAJORITY OF IT WILL STAY SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. CURRENTLY, THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM ARE UNCLEAR, THOUGH,
GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
IMPACTING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WILL TRACK SOUTH
FROM CANADA ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, REACHING UP INTO THE
LOW 30S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO THE 20S THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
WINDS IMPACTS WILL BE LOW FOR THE WEEK UP UNTIL FRIDAY, SO WIND
CHILLS WON'T BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUS WEEKS, BUT WILL STILL BE DOWN
AROUND ZERO AND JUST BELOW SOME NIGHTS. THERE IS POSSIBLY SOME
RELIEF ON THE WAY AS SOME GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BREAKING DOWN AND A RIDGE BUILDING EAST. THOUGH, THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME IFR
VISIBILITY MAY DEVELOP WITH THE SNOW BUT WOULD BE FLEETING. MORE
SUSTAINED IFR CEILINGS ARE OUT IN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA AND WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN OHIO IN SOME CAPACITY THIS EVENING. CEILING
TRENDS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR-MVFR RANGE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH SNOW CLEARING OUT TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST AND CEILINGS WILL START TO TREND BACK TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR EXPECTED IN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LAKE ERIE (~95%) WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THROUGH THE WEEK AS PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8-12 KNOTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...13
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