172
FXUS61 KCLE 030444
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1144 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH A LINE
CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
2) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING THAT WILL BRING A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE, THOUGH WEAKER, MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT THE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FIGHTING TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHEN IT REACHES THE
SURFACE, IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN
TO AROUND 3 TO 5 MILES. THIS LINE SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE
THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, FLOW BEHIND THIS
INITIAL WAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR SOME
CONVERGENCE ALONG NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THOUGH, A LIMITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ
WHICH WON'T ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH
LESS FURTHER WEST INTO OHIO. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
EVENING UNTIL THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT AS THE
MAJORITY OF IT WILL STAY SOUTH WITH THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. CURRENTLY, THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM ARE UNCLEAR, THOUGH,
GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
IMPACTING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WILL TRACK SOUTH
FROM CANADA ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, REACHING UP INTO THE
LOW 30S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO THE 20S THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
WINDS IMPACTS WILL BE LOW FOR THE WEEK UP UNTIL FRIDAY, SO WIND
CHILLS WON'T BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUS WEEKS, BUT WILL STILL BE DOWN
AROUND ZERO AND JUST BELOW SOME NIGHTS. THERE IS POSSIBLY SOME
RELIEF ON THE WAY AS SOME GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BREAKING DOWN AND A RIDGE BUILDING EAST. THOUGH, THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES, WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AS WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY, MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY CONTINUING, THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION, AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MVFR THEME. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10KTS BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS 10KTS LATE TUESDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR EXPECTED IN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH MORE
SNOW EXPECTED.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED WITH ICE LIKELY TO EXPAND
THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT TOWARD THE LAKE ON THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
AGAIN TO THE LAKE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
ON FRIDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH FLOW
DECREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...26
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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