253
FXUS61 KCLE 030842
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BASED ON TRENDS IN HIGHER-RES NWP MODEL DATA INITIALIZED AT
00Z/TUE OR MORE RECENTLY, INCREASED POP'S ALONG THE EXPECTED COLD
FRONT PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE DISCUSSION-KEY MESSAGE 2 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PRIMARILY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9TH.
2) PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN
THIS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NET TROUGHING ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ABNORMALLY-COLD AIR
MASS, REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL
IMPACT AT LEAST MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9TH, INCLUDING NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. MAINLY
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN OUR CWA.
FOR CONTEXT, OUR NORMAL HIGHS ARE NEAR 35F AND NORMAL LOWS ARE
NEAR 20F THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO
EXIT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TODAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 20'S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AMIDST THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
REGIME BEHIND THE FRONT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
MAINLY THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0F AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20'S.
THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT SLOWLY E'WARD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE
20'S ON THURSDAY. LOWS NEAR 10F TO 15F THURSDAY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AMIDST STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WAA. FRIDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20'S TO
MID 30'S BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN
ARCTIC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED COLDER AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE MOVES
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND
VICINITY. WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO MINIMUM WIND CHILLS SHOULD OCCUR
THIS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, RESPECTIVELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING: WEAK MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRECEDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXES EMBEDDED IN W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE RELEASE OF
AT LEAST WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST ~1 KM AGL VIA
CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS IN HIGHER-RES NWP MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND
MAXIMIZED ASCENT IN A CLOUD LAYER ABOUT 1 KM THICK AND
EXHIBITING TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT -10C TO -15C. THUS, A NARROW
BAND (I.E. BRIEF BURST) OF STEADY TO HEAVY SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, A SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS AND THE EVOLUTION OF MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
LIMITED LAKE-EFFECT SNOW (LES) TO STREAM GENERALLY E'WARD FROM
MAINLY ICE-COVERED LAKE ERIE AND IMPACT FAR-NE OH AND NW PA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT, LIMITED
LES SHOULD STREAM GENERALLY SE'WARD ACROSS NW PA AND NE OH
BEFORE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUMMETS. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONE INCH OR LESS.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BASED
ON THE PROJECTED WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS KEY MESSAGE SECTION. DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SNOW IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE FOLLOWING: MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
A SE'WARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT AND THE RELEASE OF
WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST ~1 KM AGL VIA
CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL SHOULD TOTAL ROUGHLY ONE TO FOUR INCHES IN OUR CWA.
GREATEST TOTALS SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH
AND NW PA, WHERE SNOW SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY MOIST NW'ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW, AT AND NEAR THE SURFACE, AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS SUNDAY, PERIODIC AND SCATTERED
LES SHOWERS SHOULD TARGET OUR CWA AMIDST A MAINLY NW'ERLY MEAN
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST AIR OVER/DOWNWIND OF
THE ICE-FREE WATERS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON, AND POSSIBLE
GAPS IN LAKE ERIE'S ICE COVER. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LAKE HURON AND ESPECIALLY LAKE ERIE, LES
INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. NOTE: A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, AMIDST STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE
ACCOMPANYING THE ARCTIC RIDGE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES, WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AS WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY, MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY CONTINUING, THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION, AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MVFR THEME. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10KTS BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS 10KTS LATE TUESDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR EXPECTED IN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH MORE
SNOW EXPECTED.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED WITH ICE LIKELY TO EXPAND
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND ALLOW
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT TOWARD THE LAKE ON THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
AGAIN TO THE LAKE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
ON FRIDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH FLOW
DECREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...26
MARINE...13
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