194
FXUS61 KCLE 031759
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1259 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM TO MEDIUM-HIGH ON A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER-END SNOW AMOUNTS.
2) SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
3) LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY, SWEEPING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL BE ONE FEATURE TO
WATCH FOR ANY LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY
IMMEDIATELY ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
BRIEFLY WARM NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AREA-WIDE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN
SUB-ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT - MORE ON THAT IN KEY MESSAGE #2.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM TO MEDIUM-HIGH (50 TO 70%) FOR A 2 TO 4-
INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR ON
FRIDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER-END OF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WHERE SOME LAKE-ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY'S CLIPPER SYSTEM, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN SUB-
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COMBINATION OF COLD
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY-COLD WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -24 DEGREES F INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH FOR THIS OCCURRENCE, 60 TO
90%, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS OF GENERALLY -5 TO
-10 DEGREES F ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK LAKE-
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW REMAINS
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO. ANTICIPATE A BRIEF UP-TICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FRONT,
THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
ALLOW ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH, ALBEIT PERIODIC LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS MAY PERSIST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE HAVE
REDUCED CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKE TO MVFR AND IFR
VISIBILITIES WITH A CONSISTENT CEILINGS OF MVFR HEIGHTS.
ELSEWHERE, THERE IS A MIX BAG OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS, WHICH
SHOULD STEADILY BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS,
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH.
OVERALL IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS. THESE MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH A VERY BRIEF LIFTING OF CEILINGS POSSIBLE NEAR 00Z. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR EXPECTED IN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH MORE
SNOW EXPECTED.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED WITH ICE LIKELY TO EXPAND
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND ALLOW
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT TOWARD THE LAKE ON THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
AGAIN TO THE LAKE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
ON FRIDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH FLOW
DECREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...04
MARINE...13
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