975
FXUS61 KCLE 040457
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1157 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM TO MEDIUM-HIGH ON A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER-END SNOW AMOUNTS. MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
2) SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
3) LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY, SWEEPING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL BE ONE FEATURE TO
WATCH FOR ANY LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, PARTICULARLY
IMMEDIATELY ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
BRIEFLY WARM NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AREA-WIDE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN
SUB-ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT - MORE ON THAT IN KEY MESSAGE #2.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM TO MEDIUM-HIGH (50 TO 70%) FOR A 2 TO 4-
INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR ON
FRIDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER-END OF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WHERE SOME LAKE-ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY'S CLIPPER SYSTEM, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN SUB-
ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COMBINATION OF COLD
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY-COLD WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -24 DEGREES F INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH FOR THIS OCCURRENCE, 60 TO
90%, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS OF GENERALLY -5 TO
-10 DEGREES F ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WEAK LAKE-
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW REMAINS
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO. ANTICIPATE A BRIEF UP-TICK IN SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FRONT,
THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
ALLOW ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH, ALBEIT PERIODIC LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS MAY PERSIST.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS IN THE 1,500-3,500 FT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO WHAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
INITIALIZING WITH, SO WENT QUITE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC COMPARED
TO MODELS. THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS HERE OR THERE, OR
IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS, BUT OVERALL, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST TO BE MVFR CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR EXPECTED IN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A CLIPPER BRINGS SNOW AREAWIDE. NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED WITH THE LATEST ANALYSIS
INDICATING 95 PERCENT COVERAGE. THIS COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE
THICKNESS OF THE ICE SHEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, MAINTAINING THESE WINDS INTO
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE
ERIE, SHIFTING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST LAKE FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING THEM TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TO 10-15 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...04
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