385
FXUS61 KCLE 041128
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
628 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS FULL
UPDATE BESIDES INCREASING WINDS AND GUSTS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPENING CLIPPER-TYPE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT THE CLIPPER WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NORTHERN OH AND NW PA THIS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PRIMARILY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REBOUND TO
NEAR-NORMAL VALUES ON TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 10TH.
2.) PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH UPCOMING WEEKEND.
3.) BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NET TROUGHING ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ABNORMALLY-COLD AIR
MASS, REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL
IMPACT AT LEAST MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9TH, INCLUDING NORTHERN OH AND NW PA, AS THE
S'WARD EXTENT OF THE TROUGH FLUCTUATES. MAINLY BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN OUR CWA. FOR CONTEXT,
OUR NORMAL HIGHS ARE NEAR 35F AND NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 20F THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT. AMIDST THE
LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME BEHIND A RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGE, HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20'S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLY THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE 0F AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT SLOWLY E'WARD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION
ON FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING MAINLY
THE LOWER TO MID 20'S ON THURSDAY. DURING THURSDAY EVENING,
LOWS NEAR 10F TO 15F ARE EXPECTED IN NW PA AND NE OH, WHILE LOWS
MAINLY NEAR 15F TO 20F ARE EXPECTED FARTHER WEST IN OUR CWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
MODERATE AMIDST STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA. FRIDAY'S HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 20'S TO MID 30'S BEFORE THE ARCTIC
FRONT PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT, AN ARCTIC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
COLDER AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS SHOULD OCCUR THIS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, RESPECTIVELY.
THE COLDEST OF THESE WIND CHILLS (-10F TO -20F) SHOULD OCCUR
SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY PROMPT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. ON TUESDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXIT E'WARD AS A RIDGE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARMER AIR MASS, OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
ACCORDINGLY, OUR LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH THE LOWER TO UPPER 30'S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LATEST SURFACE OBS AND RADAR DATA AS OF 2:30 AM EST INDICATE
SNOW FLURRIES ARE LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. THESE APPEAR
TO SIMPLY BE THE RESULT OF MIXED-PHASE STRATOCUMULI THAT ARE
JUST THICK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VERY LIGHT SNOW PRODUCTION. AS A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACCOMPANIES THE AFOREMENTIONED,
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE, EXPECT THE STRATOCUMULI TO THIN ENOUGH
TO NO LONGER SUPPORT SNOW PRODUCTION BY MIDDAY TODAY. NO MORE
THAN A TRACE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM THESE
FLURRIES.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BASED ON THE PROJECTED WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS KEY MESSAGE
SECTION. DURING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WIDESPREAD SNOW,
STEADY AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE FOLLOWING: MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SE'WARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT AND THE RELEASE OF AT LEAST WEAK POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST ~1 KM AGL VIA CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT
ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH
OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS
OF FRIDAY. AS HIGHER-RES NWP MODEL DATA BECOME AVAILABLE FOR
THIS PORTION OF OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
MODEL SOUNDING DATA FOR A POTENTIAL BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND/OR
GRAUPEL ALONG THE FRONT. THE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TOTAL ROUGHLY ONE TO FOUR INCHES IN OUR CWA. THE
GREATEST TOTALS SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH
AND NW PA. THIS IS WHERE SNOW SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY MOIST
NW'ERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR AS LONG AS SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND BEFORE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN
EARNEST.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS SUNDAY, PERIODIC AND SCATTERED
LES SHOWERS SHOULD TARGET OUR CWA AMIDST A NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY
MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST AIR OVER/DOWNWIND
OF THE ICE-FREE WATERS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON, AND POSSIBLE
GAPS IN LAKE ERIE'S ICE COVER. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LAKE HURON AND ESPECIALLY LAKE ERIE, LES
INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. NOTE: A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AMIDST
STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
NW'ERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 MPH SUSTAINED
AND GUST UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH BEHIND FRIDAY'S ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER DEEP MECHANICAL
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CAA
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL PROMOTE THESE GUSTY WINDS. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE WEE HOURS OF SATURDAY
MORNING AND EASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAYBREAK AMIDST A RELAXING
MSLP GRADIENT. TRENDS IN NWP MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND ADVISORY (PEAK GUST
CRITERIA: 46-57 MPH). NOTE: THESE NW'ERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF FRESHLY-FALLEN SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHY MVFR STRATUS REMAINS WITH SOME POCKETS OF VFR IN CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE FOR ANY CLEARING THIS MORNING TO
FILL BACK IN WITH MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPANSIVE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT.
AS A RIDGE BUILDS EAST THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF VFR RETURNING TO ALL TAF SITES BEFORE MVFR RETURNS IN
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY BR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR EXPECTED IN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A CLIPPER BRINGS SNOW AREAWIDE. NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
DURING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
LAKE. WINDS TURN WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. WINDS
TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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