968
FXUS61 KCLE 050515
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1215 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS FULL
UPDATE BESIDES INCREASING WINDS AND GUSTS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPENING CLIPPER-TYPE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT THE CLIPPER WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NORTHERN OH AND NW PA THIS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PRODUCE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS TO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
3.) BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
3.) PRIMARILY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR-AVERAGE VALUES BY
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES COMING OFF LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO
ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL COME ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER AND ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE A WARM FRONT LIFTING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATELY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SOME OF THE WED 12Z HI-RES FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEHIND
THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE A SHORT TIME WINDOW FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND BRIEF SQUALLS FOR THE SNOWBELT. ALL OF NORTHERN OHIO MAY SEE
A TOTAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MAY SEE A TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL, LOCALIZED HIGHER POSSIBLE, BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE MAY BE
IMPACTED BY SNOW AND WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP IN THE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC COLD AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BETWEEN 5F AND -5F
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP -10F TO -20F
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH 6F TO
13F AT MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 2F TO -8F
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WIND CHILL BETWEEN -5F AND -15F.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER
20A ON SUNDAY FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE ARCTIC COLD THIS WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MODERATE GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS. WIND CHILLS EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY'S HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK, UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. OVERALL THE
FORECAST TREND MONDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE AVERAGE FOR EARLY TO
MID FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER CLOUD COVER. ENOUGH CLEARING MAY
ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS IN CENTRAL OF EAST-
CENTRAL OHIO, WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING FREEZING FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 1/2SM OR 1/4SM. ADDED IFR TEMPO FOR A FEW TAF SITES,
BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC IF THERE IS SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
CONTINUE AND/OR EXPAND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30-35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND EXPAND AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...15
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