227
FXUS61 KCLE 050754
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
254 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES, PA FOR POTENTIAL MINIMUM WIND CHILLS OF -20F TO -30F.
THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 12 PM EST THIS SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES, IS STILL EXPECTED
AFFECT OUR ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN NWP GUIDANCE AND WEATHER OBS
FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY.
2.) PRIMARILY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO MINIMUM WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
FORECAST THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, RESPECTIVELY.
3.) PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO, GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
4.) TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES NEXT WEEK
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLEAR SKY AND WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED A
SURFACE-BASED LAYER OF AIR TO COOL TO SUPERSATURATION VIA
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SOME LOCALES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
ISOLATED FREEZING FOG FORMATION GIVEN AIR TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW 32F IN THE FOG. FREEZING FOG
MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE VIA DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DURING THE MID OR LATE MORNING HOURS OF TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NET TROUGHING ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ABNORMALLY-COLD AIR
MASS, REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL
IMPACT AT LEAST MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THIS
MONDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING NORTHERN OH AND NW PA, AS THE S'WARD
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH FLUCTUATES. MAINLY BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN OUR CWA. FOR CONTEXT,
OUR NORMAL HIGHS ARE NEAR 35F AND NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 20F THIS
TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT E'WARD
BEFORE TWO COLD FRONTS, ARGUABLY, SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH OUR CWA
ON FRIDAY. THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD TRAVERSE OUR REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHILE AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD
TRAVERSE OUR REGION FRIDAY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW OUR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 20'S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE 10F TO 20F
RANGE THIS EVENING BEFORE READINGS BEGIN TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT
AROUND AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, VIA STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL WAA. ON FRIDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 20'S TO MID 30'S BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT PASSAGE RESULTS
IN A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE DROP. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, AN
ARCTIC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED MUCH COLDER AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. FOR
EXAMPLE, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
EITHER SIDE OF 0F AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
MORNING, RESPECTIVELY, WHEN WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OH AND
AN UPGRADE FROM EXTREME COLD WATCH TO WARNING FOR NW PA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WHEN THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS (NEAR -15F TO -30F) SHOULD OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SNOW:
ODDS FAVOR FAIR WEATHER TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT E'WARD. PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SNOW,
STEADY AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION GENERALLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO THE FOLLOWING: MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SE'WARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT AND THE
RELEASE OF AT LEAST WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST ~1
KM AGL VIA CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE FIRST COLD FRONT
AND ESPECIALLY THE ARCTIC FRONT. BASED ON TRENDS IN HIGHER-RES
NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, WE ARE GROWING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVY GRAUPEL AND/OR SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND RELEASE OF POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY RESULT IN STRONG, MAXIMIZED ASCENT AT CLOUD
TEMPERATURES NEAR 8C TO 12C BELOW ZERO AND AMIDST 0-1 KM AGL
MEAN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THUS, SNOW SQUALLS ARE A
CONCERN. THE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO TOTAL
PRIMARILY 1 TO 4 INCHES IN OUR CWA. THE GREATEST TOTALS SHOULD
BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OH AND NW PA, WHERE
LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 5 OR 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS WHERE
SNOW SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY MOIST NW'ERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR AS
LONG AS SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT AND BEFORE THE
ARCTIC FRONT USHERS-IN A MUCH DRIER LOW/MID-LEVEL AIR MASS.
FUTURE TRENDS IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE
OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY IN NE OH AND NW PA.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS SUNDAY, PERIODIC AND SCATTERED
LES SHOWERS SHOULD TARGET OUR CWA AMIDST A NNW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY
MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST AIR OVER/DOWNWIND
OF THE ICE-FREE WATERS OF LAKE HURON AND POSSIBLE GAPS IN LAKE
ERIE'S ICE COVER. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF EXTENSIVE ICE COVER
ON LAKE HURON AND ESPECIALLY LAKE ERIE, LES INTENSITY AND
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. NOTE: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY
WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AMIDST STABILIZING
SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
WIND AND BLOWING SNOW:
NW'ERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
SUSTAINED AND GUST UP TO 30 TO 45 MPH BEHIND FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT
PASSAGES. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER DEEP MECHANICAL
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CAA
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL PROMOTE THESE GUSTY WINDS. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE WEE HOURS OF SATURDAY
MORNING AND EASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAYBREAK AMIDST A RELAXING
MSLP GRADIENT. TRENDS IN NWP MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND ADVISORY (PEAK GUST
CRITERIA: 46-57 MPH). NOTE: THESE NW'ERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF FRESHLY-FALLEN
SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
DURING NEXT WEEK TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD EXIT E'WARD AS THE RIDGING ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARMER AIR MASS, OVERSPREADS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
ACCORDINGLY, DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE MID 30'S TO
LOWER 40'S EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REACH
MAINLY THE LOWER TO MID 20'S. CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER ON
TUESDAY COURTESY OF STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE
RIDGE. PERIODS OF SNOW AND/OR RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
GENERALLY E'WARD THROUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER CLOUD COVER. ENOUGH CLEARING MAY
ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS IN CENTRAL OF EAST-
CENTRAL OHIO, WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING FREEZING FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 1/2SM OR 1/4SM. ADDED IFR TEMPO FOR A FEW TAF SITES,
BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC IF THERE IS SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
CONTINUE AND/OR EXPAND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30-35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND EXPAND AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...15
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