245
FXUS61 KCLE 061754
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1254 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR THE CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF: 1) LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THIS MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH THE GREATEST SNOW RATES AND IMPACTS ACROSS
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, 2) SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA, AND 3) A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
AND BLOWING SNOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING. NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY LIKELY TO SLOW TRAVEL. THE GREATEST IMPACTS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF A BOWLING GREEN TO MILLERSBURG LINE.
2.) AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LITTLE SNOW AND DRIER WEATHER, AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM TODAY.
A BROKEN BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, A FEW HOURS OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, QUICKLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES, AND SOME (LIMITED) LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS
EXPECTED. THIS ALL IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING.
3.) ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS RETURNS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS IN EFFECT. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.
4.) OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO NOTABLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
5.) THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH A PUSH OF MILDER AIR, THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE (A COMBINATION
OF HEIGHT FALLS/PVA AND LOW-MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION) WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, BRINGING AN AREA-WIDE LIGHT
SNOW. THE STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND
PERHAPS SOME TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, WILL CLIP OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A MORE MODERATE PERIOD OF SNOW IS
LIKELY THIS MORNING...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER/BROADER LIFT
SUPPORTING GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW RATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS LIFT QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON, TAKING THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IT AND
USHERING IN WHAT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 10S/LOWER 20S THIS MORNING AS
SNOW ARRIVES, AND ONLY SLOW WARMING UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY, SNOW
WILL BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS AND IMPACT TRAVEL. THIS
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY QUICKLY
BETWEEN 5-8 AM FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST, POSING
SOME IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE ONSET WILL BE EARLIEST. HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A ~3 HOUR WINDOW OF SNOW RATES OF 0.5-1.0" PER HOUR
MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SOUTHWEST OF ROUGHLY A BOWLING
GREEN TO MILLERSBURG LINE) THIS MORNING, AND IT'S THIS AREA
WHERE WE HAVE A QUICK 2-3" IN THE FORECAST BY MIDDAY AND WHERE
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST THIS MORNING. SNOW RATES SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHTER ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, WHERE A GENERAL INCH
TO LOCALLY TWO IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE MILD IMPACTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THOUGH WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS STILL LIKELY,
PARTICULARLY ON SECONDARY/SIDE ROADS.
PART OF THE REASONING FOR THE WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANSION WAS
LIKELY IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH THIS MORNING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERNMOST COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 4-8 PM.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, BEHIND THE MORNING SNOW AND AHEAD OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW ROAD CREWS TO BRIEFLY GET
THINGS INTO GOOD SHAPE, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT CONDITIONS GO BACK DOWNHILL THIS EVENING.
ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF, STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/CONVERGENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
BRING SNOW SHOWER AND SQUALL POTENTIAL AREA-WIDE. SNOW SQUALLS
CAN DROP A VERY QUICK 0.5-1.5" OF SNOW WHERE THEY OCCUR, ALONG
WITH A SUDDEN VISIBILITY DROP AND QUICK DEGRADATION OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THE SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
MAXIMIZE SOUTHEAST OF A SANDUSKY TO FINDLAY LINE, THOUGH CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT (AT LEAST ON A MORE ISOLATED BASIS) ACROSS THE
TOLEDO AREA. THE COMBINATION OF SOME MODEST FLUXES OFF THE ICY
LAKE AND UPSLOPE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE FRONTAL BURST/SQUALL
BEING MORE PROLONGED/INTENSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE, WHERE IT
MAY DROP A QUICK 2-3" ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA.
SOME (LIMITED) LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH THE AIRMASS DOES
QUICKLY DRY STARTING AROUND 3Z/10 PM TONIGHT AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER, WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT OFF OF 96% FROZEN LAKE ERIE. STILL, COULD SEE
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IF A BAND WITH A CONNECTION TO LAKE
HURON CAN DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OH AMID THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW AS SEVERAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT.
ALONG WITH THE ROUND OF FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT THIS EVENING, GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL BECOME A CONCERN. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES,
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND QUICK PRESSURE RISES ALSO
ARGUING FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. 925MB WINDS INCREASING TO
30-40KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT SUGGESTS
SURFACE GUSTS IN A SIMILAR 30-40KT (ROUGHLY 35-45 MPH) RANGE
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. A FEW ADVISORY-LEVEL (40KT/46MPH+) GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND WITH ANY MORE INTENSE SNOW
SQUALLS, THOUGH BELIEVE THE WIND WILL POSE MORE OF A THREAT OF
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY/LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MORE SO THAN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. GIVEN
THIS, WILL EMPHASIZE THE WIND GUSTS IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY
AND RUN THE ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM OR 1 AM (FROM WEST
TO EAST) TO CAPTURE THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. BLOWING SNOW CAN BE QUITE IMPACTFUL ACROSS OUR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA, WHERE FLATTER AND MORE OPEN TERRAIN IS
FOUND, WITH SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED (BUT STILL PRESENT) IMPACTS
ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. OUTSIDE
OF ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT LINGERS IN FAR NORTHEAST OH OR NORTHWEST
PA INTO SATURDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THE TOLEDO AREA WILL GET THE LEAST SNOW OVERALL (HEAVIEST
MORNING SNOW TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, BETTER SQUALL POTENTIAL TO
THE SOUTHEAST) AND WILL BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL OF THAT LEADS TO SOME QUESTION ON BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS AROUND TOLEDO, LEADING TO LUCAS AND OTTAWA COUNTIES
BEING LEFT OUT OF THE ADVISORY. SIMILARLY, THE EAST END OF THE
AREA WILL SEE LESS SYNOPTIC SNOW THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THE
SNOW SQUALLS/LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BEGIN DOWNSLOPING AND
WEAKENING COMING WHILE INTO THE YOUNGSTOWN AREA THIS EVENING.
BECAUSE BOTH ENDS OF THE EVENT ARE RELATIVELY LIGHTER IN THE
YOUNGSTOWN AREA, DID LEAVE MAHONING AND TRUMBULL OUT OF THE
ADVISORY IN COLLABORATION WITH WFO PITTSBURGH. WILL MONITOR
OBSERVED SNOW AMOUNTS AND FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
IN BOTH AREAS, AND WOULD LIKE TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS EVENING REGARDLESS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES, WHICH
ARE IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
WIND CHILLS QUICKLY FALL BELOW 0 BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT,
BOTTOMING OUT EARLY SATURDAY AT -25 TO -30F IN NORTHWEST PA AND
CLOSER TO -15 TO -25F ACROSS OHIO, "MILDEST" TO THE WEST.
AMBIENT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ROUGHLY -5 TO +5F,
COLDEST IN NORTHWEST PA (WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY GET AS COLD AS
10F BELOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND "LEAST COLD" IN NW OHIO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
IN NORTHWEST PA (AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OH) TO THE
LOW-MID 10S ACROSS THE REST OF OHIO. WIND CHILLS WILL BRIEFLY
WARM ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -15F, THOUGH MAY STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE -10F IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA AT "PEAK HEATING".
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE OPTIMALLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT,
SUPPORTING MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, WITH FORECAST LOWS
RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 0 ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR TO 0
TO -10F FROM NORTH CENTRAL OH POINTS EAST. A FEW TYPICAL COLDER
SPOTS MAY DROP TO -10 TO -20F IF WE STAY CLEAR/CALM ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE COLD AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT POTENTIAL NEED FOR ADDITIONAL COLD WX ADVISORIES,
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 4
AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS NOT
LOOKING LIKE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW BY ANY STRETCH, BUT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE CURRENT FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWED THE NBM AND IS MAINLY DRY, THOUGH IF RECENT MODEL
TRENDS HOLD WE WILL NEED TO ADD SNOW THE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST, WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IF THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS A BIT FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST.
OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO RATHER MINOR SNOW CHANCES, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
IT WILL STILL BE COLD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 10S TO MID 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO 10S. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ON
MONDAY, AND WELL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR TUESDAY AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO GRADUALLY MODERATE.
KEY MESSAGE 5
WHILE GUIDANCE DISAGREES QUITE A BIT ON DETAILS, WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED, STARTING AS MAINLY RAIN OR PERHAPS A
MIX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING AS A BIT OF SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS 18Z TAF UPDATE IS
THE ONGOING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE
SOME LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NEOH AND NWPA THAT ARE
CAUSING DROPS IN CEILINGS TO LOWER MVFR AND SOME IFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. THERE IS ALSO AREAS OF LIGHT FOG OR BR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM. THAT LIGHT
FOG/BR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT AVIATION
WEATHER IMPACT TO WATCH IS COMING ALONG THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z WITH A BROKEN LINE OF HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS. WE HAVE ALL LOCATIONS
MENTIONED IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR A QUICK DROP IN VISIBILITY 1/2SM
TO 1SM WITH THE BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW. SCATTERED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT
FOR THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MVFR
TO VFR CEILINGS WITH SOME CLEARING FOR NWOH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AMDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
WINDS WILL START OUT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING
WEST 8 TO 12 KNOTS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW AND POTENTIAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY 3SM TO 5SM FOR
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT SNOW
ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE IS ICE-COVERED. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL BRING NORTHWEST GALES 35 KNOTS TO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS ARE VERY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SOME SHIFT OF THE ICE ON
LAKE ERIE MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ006-008-017-018-027-028-036-037-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ009>014-
019>023-029>033-038-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LEZ142>148-162>168.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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