540
FXUS61 KCLE 062003
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
303 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE TRUMBULL AND
MAHONING, OH DUE TO IMPACTS FROM SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS, GUSTY WINDS, AND BLOWING
SNOW LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
2) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
3) SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AFTER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
4) TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, SUPPORTED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET, WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH IT. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH A LULL IN-BETWEEN THE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THOUGH WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE WITH THE FRONT. SNOW
SQUALLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS THERE WILL BE STRONG
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW SQUALLS WILL DROP VISIBILITY
RAPIDLY WITH RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5-1.5" WHERE THE BAND IS
LOCATED. THE PRIMARY AREA FOR SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL IS FROM SANDUSKY
EASTWARD, WITH LESS POTENTIAL TOWARDS TOLEDO THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT
BRIEF DROP IN VISIBILITY AND A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. USE
CAUTION IF TRAVELING TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE
QUICKLY. SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL WILL DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AROUND
10PM AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW WITH THE FRONT, FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND WITH A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT LAKE ERIE IS NEARLY COMPLETELY FROZEN, LAKE
HURON STILL HAS THE MAJORITY OF ITS OPEN WATERS CLEAR, WHICH WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING
SUBSTANTIAL TOTALS GIVEN THE POOR ENVIRONMENT, BUT ANOTHER INCH
TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OHIO.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG THIS EVENING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
MUCH COLDER AIR BEING ADVECTED IN BEHIND. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
INCREASE AS 850 TEMPERATURES APPROACH -20C AND WINDS AT 925MB
INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KNOTS WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS
OF 40-45MPH ARE LIKELY STARTING AROUND 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE STRONG WINDS, BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME A
HAZARD AS WELL WITH THE QUICK ACCUMULATION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WITH THE FRONT. BLOWING SNOW CAN DROP VISIBILITY AND COVER
ROADS QUICKLY, PARTICULARLY IN OPEN AREAS, SUCH AS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP RAPIDLY AS 850
TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN -20C MOVE INTO THE REGION. COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES TO INCLUDE AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING PORTION
OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST AND BELOW ZERO FROM
ROUGHLY THE I-71 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP DOWN BELOW -10F AS WELL IN FAR
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THOSE LOW
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING BY THE STRONG WINDS, WILL DROP WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -10 TO -25F IN OHIO AND APPROACHING -30F IN
PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID TEENS OUT WEST AND ONLY
INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OUT EAST, GENERALLY MOST WILL STAY AROUND
10F. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OUT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN BELOW ZERO
FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT, WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN -10 AND -15F FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
THANKFULLY, BY SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED ENOUGH TO
LESSEN THE IMPACT OF THE WIND CHILLS, BUT WILL FAIRLY COLD.
GIVEN THIS, CAN'T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY MORNING IF CONDITIONS
STAY ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
QUIET WEATHER WILL THE THEME FOR MUCH OF THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK,
WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE REGION BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT,
NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION GIVEN THAT THE ENERGY IS FAIRLY
WEAK THE PAST MODEL RUN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. IN
ADDITION, THERE WILL BE SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH. BY MONDAY,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO DEVELOP OUT WEST AND BUILDS
EASTWARD TO BRINGING A BREAK IN WINTER WEATHER AND QUIETER
CONDITIONS. MIDWEEK, THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODELS
ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN CANADA WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION.
SOME PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, AND
WITH TEMPERATURES TOUCHING ABOVE FREEZING, PERCEPTION WILL
START OFF AS RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE
THAT NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 4
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND WE'LL SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL TOUCH UPPER 30S AND MAY EVEN SEE 40S HERE AND THERE
BEFORE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 30S AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS 18Z TAF UPDATE IS
THE ONGOING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE
SOME LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NEOH AND NWPA THAT ARE
CAUSING DROPS IN CEILINGS TO LOWER MVFR AND SOME IFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. THERE IS ALSO AREAS OF LIGHT FOG OR BR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM. THAT LIGHT
FOG/BR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT AVIATION
WEATHER IMPACT TO WATCH IS COMING ALONG THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z WITH A BROKEN LINE OF HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS. WE HAVE ALL LOCATIONS
MENTIONED IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR A QUICK DROP IN VISIBILITY 1/2SM
TO 1SM WITH THE BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW. SCATTERED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT
FOR THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MVFR
TO VFR CEILINGS WITH SOME CLEARING FOR NWOH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AMDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
WINDS WILL START OUT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING
WEST 8 TO 12 KNOTS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW AND POTENTIAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY 3SM TO 5SM FOR
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTHWEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT SNOW
ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE IS ICE-COVERED. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL BRING NORTHWEST GALES 35 KNOTS TO THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BASIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS ARE VERY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SOME SHIFT OF THE ICE ON
LAKE ERIE MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ006-008-017-018-027-028-036-037-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ009>014-
019>023-029>033-038-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LEZ142>148-162>168.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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