370
FXUS61 KCLE 071746
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1246 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED, THOUGH LOCALIZED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL LINGER TODAY. QUIET
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IT REMAINS FRIGID THIS WEEKEND, WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL 12:00 PM
TODAY. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.
2) LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED, LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ALSO CONTINUES.
3) OUTSIDE OF A SMALL SNOW CHANCE IN WESTERN OHIO EARLY SUNDAY,
PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
4) MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. MID TO LATE WEEK. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF ANY OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPES, CHANCES, AND AMOUNTS.
5) AFTER A SURGE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
NO CHANGES TO THE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING, WITH
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN OHIO AND
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR OUR PA COUNTIES UNTIL NOON TODAY.
MINIMUM WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING OF GENERALLY 10 TO 20 BELOW ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS OHIO, CLOSER TO 20 TO 30 BELOW IN NORTHWEST PA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE NUMBERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA TO
THE MID TO UPPER 10S ACROSS NORTHWEST OH, WITH WIND CHILLS
WARMING ABOVE 0 ACROSS NORTHWEST OH THIS AFTERNOON AND TO A 0 TO
10 BELOW RANGE ELSEWHERE. THE LOW TEMPERATURE AND WIND CHILL
FORECAST TONIGHT IS TRICKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY
OVERHEAD, SUPPORTING LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS BUT ALSO STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING...IF WE STAY CLEAR. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
MAY CONTINUE INTO NORTHWEST PA, WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LIKELY TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST STUCK CLOSE TO THE NBM GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY, CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO THE
WEST AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO THE EAST. AS IT IS,
FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BRING WIND CHILLS TO -10 TO -15
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT. FOR NOW, AM
NOT HOISTING ANY COLD HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
THOUGH ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES DO
HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO GET COLDER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST
(POTENTIALLY BELOW -10F IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS) IF A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES PLAYS OUT TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL STILL BE FRIGID BUT SLIGHTLY LESS SO, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GET WELL INTO THE 10S TO PERHAPS LOW
20S, "WARMEST" WEST AND COLDEST ACROSS PA WHERE THE HILLS MAY
STILL STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 0
ON SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST PA. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND POTENTIAL TO
GET QUITE COLD WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS ARE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT, EITHER SIDE OF 0 AND WARMER
WEST/COLDER EAST, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA TO GET TO -10F OR COLDER IF A
PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES PLAY OUT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE COLD HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS, LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 4-5K FEET, AND
MAINLY FROZEN LAKE ERIE IS LEADING TO LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS A BAND CONNECTED TO
LAKE HURON, BRINGING SNOW TO FAR NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN ERIE/HURON COUNTIES WHERE SOME
LIMITED MOISTURE IS BEING PICKED UP OFF OF LAKE ERIE. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE BAND OFF OF LAKE HURON,
WITH THIS BAND EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER FAR NORTHEAST OH EARLY
THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING EAST INTO PA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THIS BAND MAY LINGER NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO MAY OCCUR ON A
LOCALIZED BASIS UNDER THIS BAND THROUGH TODAY, AND WITH THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS AND MAKE THEM
SNOW-COVERED OR SLICK ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. BY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY, EVEN IF THIS BAND PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST PA
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIGHT TO ADD ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
OTHERWISE, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CAN
CONTINUE IN MORE OPEN AREAS UNTIL WIND GUSTS SUBSIDE FURTHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
LET ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES DROP AS SCHEDULED, THOUGH
FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY LESS THAN IDEAL
CONDITIONS WHERE BLOWING SNOW OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW LINGER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRUSH OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
EARLY SUNDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER AND
FARTHER WEST IN RECENT GUIDANCE. OVERALL, MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY EARLY SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL MONITOR FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT SNOW TO TRY TO GET INTO FAR NORTHWEST OH. DRY WEATHER IS
OTHERWISE FAVORED TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MOST
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 4
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE
A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US, A MUTED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S., AND BLOCKING/RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA,
PINNING A PERSISTENT TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BEHIND
THIS TROUGH, GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
SHORTWAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH THE
BLOCKING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND PERSISTENT TROUGH TO OUR EAST-
NORTHEAST MAY KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO OUR SOUTH. STILL, BETWEEN
POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO DROP OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE REGION...AND POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO TRY TO TRACK FARTHER NORTH
IN THE VICINITY OF THURSDAY OR FRIDAY IF SOMETHING STRONGER/MORE
ORGANIZED CAN TAKE SHAPE...THE FORECAST HAS VARIOUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS NOT CONFIDENT,
THOUGH AFTER MIDWEEK THE PATTERN IS NOT WARM, AND WOULD LEAN
TOWARDS A MORE WINTRY SCENARIO IF WE SEE PRECIP LATER THIS WEEK.
OVERALL THERE'S LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SOME WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH
NOTHING CURRENTLY STANDS OUT AS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM.
KEY MESSAGE 5
A BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO GET INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA! UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEEK AS A WHOLE DOESN'T LOOK ALL THAT
WARM, WITH A COOLER TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL (BUT NOT NEARLY AS
FRIGID AS WHAT WE'RE SEEING NOW) BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH OUR MAINLY FROZEN OVER RIVERS FOR ICE JAM CONCERNS
AS WE WARM, THOUGH THE IMPRESSION IS THE BRIEF EARLY-WEEK MILD
SPELL, ACCOMPANIED BY NO PRECIP, SHOULD NOT CAUSE MANY ISSUES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS PRODUCING
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY CLIP KERI AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
(AND POSSIBLY BRIEF GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON) BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
10 KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR OHZ012>014-022-023-032-033-089.
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page