598
FXUS61 KCLE 081123
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
623 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY HAVE
BEEN TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER IN NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA,
AND ONE LAST ROUND OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED. NO OTHER SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
OR MESSAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE A QUIET UPCOMING WORK-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING FRIGID WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED BOTH THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS COLD POSES A
CONTINUED RISK OF COLD EXPOSURE FOR THOSE OUTSIDE WITHOUT PROPER
PROTECTION, ALONG WITH A RISK OF INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES. A
WARMING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.
2) LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE BOTTOMING OUT NEAR TO BELOW 0F THIS
MORNING, WITH SOME TYPICAL COLD SPOTS (SUCH AS WOOSTER) WHERE
SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR MAKING A RUN TOWARDS -10F. EXTREME
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE, THOUGH
WHERE SOME WIND REMAINS IT IS ENOUGH TO BRING WIND CHILLS TO -5
TO -15F. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE 10S TODAY (TO NEAR 20 IN OUR
SOUTHWEST), WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PA STRUGGLING TO REACH
10. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
WIND CHILLS WARM ABOVE 0 THIS AFTERNOON.
ONE MORE VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST FROM OH INTO PA SUPPORTING
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES
STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. POTENTIAL SOURCES OF UNCERTATINY INCLUDE
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF WIND WEST OF I-71 OVERNIGHT, ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANY PATCHY CLOUDS TO SLOW RADIATIONAL
COOLING. OVERALL, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE NBM WEST OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND UTILIZED COLDER
GUIDANCE TO THE EAST WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH PLACEMENT SUGGESTS
THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND MOST IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS BRINGS AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF I-71 (AND IT'S POSSIBLE A FEW SPOTS
GET BELOW 0), AND GENERALLY TO A 0 TO -10F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. A FEW TYPICAL COLD SPOTS/VALLEYS
CAN CERTAINLY MAKE A RUN WELL INTO THE -10 TO -20F RANGE IN OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA FOR LOWS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY, THOUGH
DUE TO SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE HINTING AT PATCHY CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SMALL DISTANCES, AM NOT YET FORECASTING THE
COLDEST POSSIBLE SOLUTION. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR NEARLY CALM,
WHICH WILL MAKE IT HARD TO REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNLESS AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR COLDER THAN -15F.
THIS IS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN OH AND
NORTHWEST PA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF THESE
NUMBERS IS NOT SUPREMELY HIGH. WILL LET THE CURRENT COLD WX
ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS MORNING, ALLOWING DAY SHIFT TO BETTER
EVALUATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ON MONDAY, WITH A
BRIEF SURGE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, WHEN MANY
SITES WILL LIKELY REACH 40 DEGREES FOR HIGHS! A COLD FRONT
CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE SHORT-LIVED HEAT
WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 10S, WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS IN NORTHEAST OH/
NORTHWEST PA A COUPLE OF NIGHTS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
MODERATING TREND IS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHWEST PA, WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A NARROW
BAND OF SNOW WITH A CLIPPER IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO MISS OUR AREA
TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, THOUGH LIGHT SNOW MAY GET CLOSE
TO CLIPPING HANCOCK/WYANDOT/MARION COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE. IF
ANY SNOW CLIPS OUR AREA, IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND LIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER LINGERING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TUESDAY
OR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE
MENTIONABLE POPS, THOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY
RETURNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF THE FRONT TRENDS SLOWER
OR MOISTURE RETURN TRENDS MORE AGGRESSIVE, A CHANCE FOR VERY
LIGHT RAIN MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL PRESS IN
ENOUGH FROM THE NORTH TO KEEP US DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -12C TO -15C WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW, SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MAY OCCUR IN NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA.
A SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING THAT PRECIP
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL LOCALLY. ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
OR SOUTHERN U.S. NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH DISAGREE QUITE A BIT ON
THE EXACT TIMING/ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE FORECAST HAS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE SIGNAL FOR
A SYSTEM, BUT WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS AT ERI WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH AND THE
LAST OF A CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON WHICH SHOULD SCATTER OUT
PRIOR TO 16Z. OTHERWISE, VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH WINDS LESS THAN 7KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND
10KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KTS
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS 10-20KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ012>014-022-023-032-033-089.
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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