913
FXUS61 KCLE 081826
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
126 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN AS CLEARING IN
SKY COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWPA. AS A
RESULT, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NWPA TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1)ONE MORE NIGHT OF FRIGID SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT OF THIS COLD POSES A CONTINUED RISK FOR
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND AREA INFRASTRUCTURE.
2)LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP CLOUD COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM TONIGHT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ONLY ENHANCE COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARDS AS INCREASED
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 0 DEGREES ACROSS FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN NWPA WHERE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP AS LOW AS -15F. GIVEN WEAK WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA, WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE VALUES. DUE TO THE CURRENT FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NWPA
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SKY
COVERAGE AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TO DETERMINE IF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER WEST, BUT AT THIS POINT THERE IS LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST FRIGID NIGHT FOR A BIT
AS THE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL BECOME MORE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 30S, POSSIBLE TOUCHING 40 DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS!
KEY MESSAGE 2
MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION OF THIS MAY BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EARLY
ON TUESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT NORTH
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN DRY OVERALL WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PRIMARILY
DEFINED BY TEMPERATURE AND WIND SHIFTS. HOWEVER, BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW AND POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT LAKE ERIE
IS FROZEN, NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE A VERY NOTABLE EVENT, BUT A
COUPLE INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM IN UPCOMING FORECASTS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
LIKELIHOOD, TIMING, AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DOES
OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 2500 TO 3500 FEET
ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH AND NW
PA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 10 KNOTS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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