953
FXUS61 KCLE 090617
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
117 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERALL THIS MORNING.
STILL ON TRACK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN OVER A COUPLE OF WEEKS FOR MOST IN OUR CWA.
KEY MESSAGES
1)LAKE EFFECT/COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2)NOT AS COLD/CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT,
FINALLY ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION, ENHANCED
BY LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
EXPECTING A WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING, THE WARM UP TO ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, AND THEN A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.
DESPITE ICE-COVERED LAKE ERIE, LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE, AIDED BY SATURATED
LOW LEVELS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS WELL. POPS ARE ON
THE EXPANSIVE SIDE IN THE SNOW BELT, BUT LOW, AND QPF/SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, PRIOR TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. POPS ON THE INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION AS SKIES ARE CLEAR.
CEILINGS AT AROUND 10KFT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY AROUND
15-18Z AND OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS BY 22-23Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD, THEN
BECOMING PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS BY
THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH AND NW
PA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 10 KNOTS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...23
MARINE...15
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