916
FXUS61 KCLE 250957
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
457 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THURSDAY'S SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SOUTH AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LOCALLY NOW. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SOME MODELS
(ESPECIALLY THE GEFS) HAVE TRENDED A BIT HIGHER WITH QPF/SNOW.
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE ALSO TRENDED A BIT COLDER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
2) QUIET WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
3) A SYSTEM MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM
TRACK, PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
1) WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH, BRINGING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 10S TO LOW 20S TONIGHT. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -14 C
CONTRIBUTING TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A
MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE (~60-70%), SHORT DURATION OF COLD
AIR, AND AIR THAT JUST ISN'T THAT COLD WILL LIMIT SHOWER
COVERAGE AND AREA EXTENT TO MAINLY NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
2) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY DEPARTS TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE MONTH, AS WE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.
3) EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET OVER THE REGION,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD AIRMASS TO THE NORTH, AND BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. MANY MODELS
HAVE ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO AN AREA OF WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTING THE REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM,
ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH (WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH PRECIPITATION SOUTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA IF ITS STRONG ENOUGH), MOISTURE CONTENT, AND
LOCATION/TRACK OF A LOW ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS HIGHER QPF/SNOW
AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, AND THESE
TRENDS ARE WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO MOVING FORWARD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
TERMINALS DROPPING TERMINALS TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. SNOW MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH MAY
BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO IFR/LIFR. EXPECT FOR VFR CEILINGS
TO RETURN TO WESTERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TO
VFR.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
TURN WESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO 12-18 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE DAY TODAY. ADDITIONAL
NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE AREA THURSDAY.
MARINE
WEST WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PERIODS OF WINDS AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TODAY. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT AND EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND WIND SPEEDS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS
THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING, BUT EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN SUSPENDED DUE TO EXTENSIVE
ICE COVERAGE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE, WAVES IN ICE FREE
AREAS MAY BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS.
ANY WIND SHIFTS AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL RESULT IN MOVEMENT OF
LAKE ICE, WHICH COULD IMPACT SHIPPING LANES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...13
MARINE...15
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