606
FXUS61 KCLE 251911
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
211 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER FOR THIS FRIDAY, WHEN
ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
NOTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AN OVERALL MODERATION IN AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS SATURDAY.
2.) INCLEMENT WEATHER SHOULD RETURN THIS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND/OR AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
1.) A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO
BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT,
CRESTS E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY, AND BEGINS TO EXIT
E'WARD ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE. NET LOW-LEVEL CAA
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS, A BRIEF UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, ALBEIT LIMITED, AND A W'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW PERIODIC AND LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW (LES) SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND IMPACT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT OF NE
OH AND NW PA THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LIGHT LES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FRESH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1". LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH MAINLY THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20'S AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
NET LOW-LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AND THEN
PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION BECOMES LOCATED ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. LATE
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 30'S TO LOWER 40'S ROUGHLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-77, WHERE LOW-LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOONER. FARTHER EAST, HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20'S
TO MID 30'S. AFTER LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20'S AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY, LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
40'S TO MID 50'S AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS COMPLEMENTED BY
SOMEWHAT BREEZY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA. FOR CONTEXT, NORMAL HIGHS ARE NEAR 40F
AND NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 25F THIS TIME OF YEAR IN OUR CWA.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
EXIT E'WARD AS CYCLONIC W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER OUR REGION. IN ADDITION, A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP E'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND VICINITY. THUS,
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
30'S FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY'S LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE 40'S TO LOWER 50'S AMIDST PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT.
2.) AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS CYCLONIC W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
PERSIST OVER OUR REGION THIS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD WAVER
IN/NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY AS MULTIPLE
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES DEVELOP/EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS
OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY COLDER-THAN-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ON TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT MAY SWEEP
GENERALLY N'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION AND ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS,
PRIMARILY RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOULD OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES, INCLUDING REFINEMENTS TO
FORECAST PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING MVFR IN FAR EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR. W WINDS OF 10-20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO 20-30 KNOTS AT TIMES WHILE
GRADUALLY TURNING NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE AS SNOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
WEST WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PERIODS OF WINDS AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TODAY. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT AND EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND WIND SPEEDS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS
THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING, BUT EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN SUSPENDED DUE TO EXTENSIVE
ICE COVERAGE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE, WAVES IN ICE FREE
AREAS MAY BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS.
ANY WIND SHIFTS AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL RESULT IN MOVEMENT OF
LAKE ICE, WHICH COULD IMPACT SHIPPING LANES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...15
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