202
FXUS61 KCLE 260636
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
136 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW HAS TRENDED UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
EXPECTING GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. THE QPF/SNOW AXIS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA, SO THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL SNOW HAS
DECREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
2) A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BRING AN INCH OR LESS OF
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
3) SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MINOR
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO. CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF SNOW IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
1) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY DEPARTS TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE MONTH, AS WE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.
2) AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEEPENING/OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW
MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY EVENING, PRODUCING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SHORT
PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS
PRODUCED SHOULD CONFIDENTLY FALL AS SNOW. IT'S A PRETTY WEAK
SYSTEM THOUGH, AND OVERALL ONLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED.
3) A COLD AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
AS IT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERTOP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN AREA OF WINTER
WEATHER. LOCALLY, IT HAS BEEN BECOMING LESS LIKELY FOR AN
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH THE QPF AXIS FURTHER SOUTH,
WITH INDICATIONS OF A LOWER QPF OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
MODELS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER IS
DECREASING, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL OHIO.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CLOUDS AT ERI
THROUGH ABOUT 8Z, VFR IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AND DIMINISH TO UNDER
5 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFT MORE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXCEPTIONS ARE CLE AND
ERI, WHERE A LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY MEAN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY
AT UNDER 10KT THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE AS SNOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND 15-25 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN NW AND DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING N AT 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY THEN NE AT 10-15 KNOTS BY MONDAY.
THE VARIABLE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
AROUND THE ICE FIELDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MILD TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DECAY OF THE ICE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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